週期數據 / 利率

面向全球投資者的經濟週期研究

透過全球資產價格,讀懂經濟週期。

EN繁简

目前指標

利率結構變化

利率結構變化 · 月度 / 數據截至 2026年9月

最新觀測值-0.05σ標準差

結構變化

結構趨勢 (右軸)同比序列 (左軸)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在載入圖表…

2026年9月 同比序列: -0.05濾波值: 0.26

指標說明

不同市場、不同年期的利率,並不一定同步變動。短期利率可能較快回應央行政策,長期利率則包含更多對增長與通脹的預期。利率結構變化指標着重樣本內最主要的相對變化,為整體利率週期補充觀察差異的角度。

計算先取各項國債孳息率與一年前的差額,再調整長期趨勢及波幅差異,透過主成分分析分離共同變化與另一組重要變化。目前樣本既有多個市場的長期國債,也有美國不同年期的國債,因此同時包含地區與年期兩方面的資訊。

目前結構中,法國及澳洲十年期孳息率在其中一側的貢獻較突出,美國短期孳息率,尤其三個月期,則在另一側較突出。指標上行,代表年度變動的相對格局偏向前一側;下行則偏向後一側。因此,它涵蓋的範圍較單一地區息差,或美國十年減三個月息差更廣。

閱讀時,可與整體利率週期及相關國債孳息率一同觀察:變化是否在多個市場普遍出現,還是對政策較敏感的短息正與其他市場長息分開?整體方向相近的環境,內部結構也可以不同。追蹤這些相對變化,有助發現單看一項基準利率時容易忽略的融資環境差異。

綠色線將結構指標平滑處理,讓持續變化與轉折更容易辨認,並不套用整體週期圖的固定週期長度。閱讀時宜結合相關市場,觀察相對變化是否持續、方向有否轉變。曲線高低是調整尺度後的指標讀數,並非回報率;模型加入新資料後,歷史讀數亦可能調整。

月度數值
月份同比序列濾波值
1997-01-0.78-0.79
1997-02-1.35-0.92
1997-03-1.16-1.01
1997-04-0.88-1.05
1997-05-0.83-1.07
1997-06-1.03-1.12
1997-07-1.19-1.18
1997-08-0.86-1.19
1997-09-0.74-1.17
1997-10-0.36-1.09
1997-11-0.21-1.00
1997-12-0.41-0.94
1998-01-0.45-0.89
1998-02-0.31-0.82
1998-03-0.68-0.81
1998-04-0.80-0.81
1998-05-0.71-0.80
1998-06-0.65-0.79
1998-07-0.32-0.72
1998-08-0.42-0.68
1998-09-0.36-0.63
1998-10-0.08-0.54
1998-11-0.22-0.48
1998-12-0.47-0.47
1999-01-0.35-0.43
1999-02-0.21-0.39
1999-030.11-0.30
1999-04-0.00-0.23
1999-050.18-0.14
1999-060.56-0.01
1999-070.940.16
1999-081.130.35
1999-091.370.55
1999-101.280.72
1999-111.180.86
1999-121.591.04
2000-011.981.26
2000-021.611.40
2000-031.031.43
2000-041.061.47
2000-050.871.46
2000-060.481.39
2000-070.151.27
2000-08-0.041.13
2000-09-0.130.98
2000-10-0.400.81
2000-11-0.160.68
2000-12-0.240.54
2001-01-0.290.41
2001-020.100.35
2001-030.620.37
2001-041.350.50
2001-051.790.68
2001-061.940.87
2001-072.051.06
2001-081.871.21
2001-092.191.39
2001-102.291.57
2001-112.361.74
2001-122.741.95
2002-012.552.11
2002-022.542.25
2002-032.562.37
2002-042.022.40
2002-051.592.36
2002-061.442.30
2002-071.302.21
2002-081.352.13
2002-090.711.97
2002-100.901.83
2002-110.951.72
2002-120.421.53
2003-010.101.32
2003-02-0.171.08
2003-03-0.160.86
2003-04-0.150.66
2003-05-0.510.43
2003-06-0.590.22
2003-07-0.260.07
2003-08-0.10-0.04
2003-090.21-0.08
2003-100.04-0.14
2003-110.19-0.17
2003-120.24-0.18
2004-010.33-0.18
2004-020.37-0.16
2004-030.01-0.19
2004-040.03-0.21
2004-050.31-0.18
2004-060.32-0.15
2004-07-0.12-0.19
2004-08-0.36-0.25
2004-09-0.65-0.35
2004-10-0.92-0.48
2004-11-1.48-0.67
2004-12-1.79-0.89
2005-01-1.83-1.10
2005-02-1.83-1.28
2005-03-1.67-1.42
2005-04-2.05-1.60
2005-05-2.25-1.78
2005-06-2.40-1.97
2005-07-2.41-2.14
2005-08-2.35-2.27
2005-09-2.32-2.38
2005-10-2.16-2.45
2005-11-1.71-2.45
2005-12-1.44-2.39
2006-01-1.55-2.35
2006-02-1.43-2.29
2006-03-1.32-2.21
2006-04-0.82-2.06
2006-05-0.57-1.88
2006-06-0.33-1.67
2006-07-0.20-1.46
2006-08-0.13-1.26
2006-09-0.09-1.07
2006-10-0.06-0.89
2006-11-0.21-0.75
2006-120.10-0.58
2007-010.52-0.36
2007-020.52-0.17
2007-030.44-0.01
2007-040.470.14
2007-050.620.30
2007-061.030.49
2007-070.940.65
2007-081.210.82
2007-091.551.03
2007-101.671.23
2007-112.041.46
2007-122.261.70
2008-012.221.90
2008-022.682.14
2008-032.982.40
2008-042.802.60
2008-052.502.73
2008-062.372.81
2008-072.512.91
2008-081.822.88
2008-091.832.84
2008-101.662.78
2008-111.432.68
2008-120.632.46
2009-010.402.21
2009-02-0.101.91
2009-03-0.371.59
2009-04-0.321.31
2009-050.141.11
2009-060.100.92
2009-07-0.030.74
2009-080.340.62
2009-090.100.49
2009-100.210.38
2009-110.210.29
2009-120.500.25
2010-010.660.25
2010-020.640.25
2010-030.560.24
2010-040.430.21
2010-05-0.180.11
2010-06-0.39-0.02
2010-07-0.37-0.12
2010-08-0.52-0.24
2010-09-0.49-0.34
2010-10-0.41-0.41
2010-11-0.14-0.44
2010-120.21-0.40
2011-010.23-0.36
2011-020.41-0.30
2011-030.44-0.23
2011-040.57-0.14
2011-050.69-0.04
2011-060.660.05
2011-070.600.12
2011-080.370.16
2011-09-0.080.12
2011-100.080.11
2011-11-0.110.08
2011-12-0.61-0.02
2012-01-0.69-0.13
2012-02-0.85-0.26
2012-03-0.86-0.37
2012-04-1.10-0.50
2012-05-1.40-0.67
2012-06-1.57-0.85
2012-07-1.69-1.03
2012-08-1.14-1.10
2012-09-0.62-1.09
2012-10-1.01-1.14
2012-11-1.17-1.20
2012-12-0.91-1.21
2013-01-0.66-1.18
2013-02-0.54-1.13
2013-03-0.67-1.10
2013-04-0.84-1.10
2013-05-0.27-1.00
2013-060.30-0.83
2013-070.64-0.63
2013-080.76-0.42
2013-090.87-0.21
2013-100.89-0.02
2013-110.880.16
2013-120.970.33
2014-010.700.44
2014-020.500.51
2014-030.540.58
2014-040.710.66
2014-050.370.68
2014-06-0.120.62
2014-07-0.480.51
2014-08-0.790.36
2014-09-0.990.18
2014-10-1.050.01
2014-11-1.18-0.16
2014-12-1.61-0.39
2015-01-1.87-0.63
2015-02-1.94-0.86
2015-03-1.93-1.07
2015-04-1.83-1.25
2015-05-0.97-1.28
2015-06-0.54-1.24
2015-07-0.40-1.17
2015-08-0.45-1.12
2015-09-0.38-1.05
2015-10-0.36-0.98
2015-11-0.24-0.90
2015-120.05-0.78
2016-010.24-0.64
2016-020.18-0.52
2016-030.22-0.41
2016-040.31-0.28
2016-05-0.42-0.28
2016-06-0.86-0.35
2016-07-0.99-0.42
2016-08-0.87-0.48
2016-09-0.85-0.53
2016-10-0.57-0.54
2016-11-0.28-0.50
2016-12-0.16-0.45
2017-010.01-0.37
2017-020.39-0.25
2017-030.33-0.15
2017-040.04-0.10
2017-050.07-0.05
2017-060.03-0.01
2017-070.550.10
2017-080.540.19
2017-090.500.27
2017-100.310.32
2017-11-0.270.27
2017-12-0.460.19
2018-01-0.370.14
2018-02-0.490.06
2018-03-0.70-0.04
2018-04-0.58-0.11
2018-05-0.57-0.18
2018-06-0.51-0.23
2018-07-0.93-0.34
2018-08-0.88-0.44
2018-09-0.95-0.53
2018-10-0.98-0.62
2018-11-0.77-0.68
2018-12-0.78-0.72
2019-01-1.01-0.79
2019-02-1.18-0.88
2019-03-1.03-0.94
2019-04-1.01-0.99
2019-05-1.05-1.04
2019-06-0.99-1.07
2019-07-0.98-1.09
2019-08-1.20-1.15
2019-09-1.08-1.17
2019-10-0.81-1.16
2019-11-0.54-1.10
2019-12-0.33-1.01
2020-01-0.28-0.92
2020-02-0.29-0.84
2020-030.75-0.61
2020-041.04-0.36
2020-051.08-0.12
2020-061.150.11
2020-071.180.32
2020-081.410.54
2020-091.250.72
2020-100.840.82
2020-110.640.87
2020-120.600.91
2021-010.650.95
2021-021.091.04
2021-030.391.01
2021-040.170.95
2021-050.390.93
2021-060.230.87
2021-070.020.79
2021-08-0.170.68
2021-090.070.61
2021-100.490.61
2021-110.400.60
2021-120.130.54
2022-010.290.51
2022-020.160.47
2022-030.030.40
2022-040.290.39
2022-050.380.38
2022-060.850.45
2022-070.320.43
2022-080.150.39
2022-090.280.37
2022-10-0.080.30
2022-11-0.490.18
2022-12-0.260.10
2023-01-0.46-0.01
2023-02-0.62-0.12
2023-03-0.75-0.24
2023-04-1.11-0.41
2023-05-1.42-0.60
2023-06-1.74-0.82
2023-07-0.93-0.90
2023-08-0.57-0.92
2023-09-0.84-0.97
2023-10-0.50-0.96
2023-11-0.19-0.90
2023-12-0.71-0.92
2024-01-0.63-0.92
2024-02-0.67-0.93
2024-03-0.73-0.93
2024-04-0.60-0.92
2024-05-0.48-0.89
2024-06-0.44-0.85
2024-07-0.35-0.80
2024-08-0.49-0.77
2024-09-0.39-0.73
2024-10-0.53-0.71
2024-11-0.28-0.65
2024-120.05-0.56
2025-010.26-0.43
2025-020.09-0.34
2025-030.56-0.20
2025-040.29-0.10
2025-050.17-0.03
2025-060.030.01
2025-070.060.05
2025-080.320.12
2025-090.320.19
2025-100.100.21
2025-110.090.23
2025-120.610.32
2026-010.220.34
2026-020.270.36
2026-030.060.35
2026-040.280.37
2026-050.220.38
2026-060.030.36
2026-07-0.040.32
2026-08-0.050.29
2026-09-0.050.26