週期數據 / 股票指數

面向全球投資者的經濟週期研究

透過全球資產價格,讀懂經濟週期。

EN繁简

目前指標

股市結構變化

股市結構變化 · 月度 / 數據截至 2026年10月

最新觀測值-1.17σ標準差

結構變化

結構趨勢 (右軸)同比序列 (左軸)
1997-01 — 2026-10

正在載入圖表…

2026年10月 同比序列: -1.17濾波值: -1.92

指標說明

即使全球股市一同上升,各市場仍有領先與落後。單看整體週期,容易忽略這些內部變化。股市結構變化指標着重共同升跌以外,各地股市主要的相對強弱如何轉變,讓你進一步了解一輪全球行情由哪些市場帶動。

建立指標時,先將主要國家及地區的股指與一年前比較,調整長期趨勢和波幅差異。主成分分析先提取最主要的共同變化,再找出另一組重要變化。後者較多反映市場間的差異,而非各地共同升跌的部分,也不是直接比較不同指數的點位。

目前模型中,上證指數是其中一側最主要的貢獻來源,印度亦有一定貢獻;另一側則以韓國與日本較為突出。因此,曲線提供觀察特定區域市場相對表現的視角。向上代表相對變化偏向前一側,向下則偏向後一側,但它並非兩個市場回報直接相減的結果。

閱讀時,重點在相對強弱,而不只是絕對升跌:跌得較少,也可以代表相對佔優。把結構曲線與全球股市週期及相關市場指數放在一起,可分辨全球環境的轉變與領先市場的更替。這樣既保留整體視野,也看得到同一輪週期中的區域差異,而不會把每次相對變動都解讀成整體經濟轉向。

綠色線將結構指標平滑處理,讓持續變化與轉折更容易辨認,並不套用整體週期圖的固定週期長度。閱讀時宜結合相關市場,觀察相對變化是否持續、方向有否轉變。曲線高低是調整尺度後的指標讀數,並非回報率;模型加入新資料後,歷史讀數亦可能調整。

月度數值
月份同比序列濾波值
1997-011.570.30
1997-021.740.62
1997-032.461.01
1997-042.381.35
1997-051.911.59
1997-061.181.68
1997-071.001.73
1997-080.951.76
1997-090.881.76
1997-101.231.81
1997-111.291.85
1997-121.741.94
1998-010.581.85
1998-020.211.70
1998-030.211.56
1998-040.471.46
1998-051.731.54
1998-061.531.59
1998-071.261.59
1998-081.291.59
1998-091.421.61
1998-10-0.111.40
1998-11-0.531.14
1998-12-1.690.73
1999-01-0.780.48
1999-02-0.600.28
1999-03-1.40-0.01
1999-04-2.61-0.46
1999-05-2.75-0.89
1999-06-1.87-1.14
1999-07-1.92-1.38
1999-08-1.54-1.53
1999-09-1.74-1.69
1999-10-1.49-1.78
1999-11-1.69-1.90
1999-12-1.21-1.92
2000-01-0.62-1.84
2000-02-0.27-1.71
2000-03-0.03-1.55
2000-041.30-1.20
2000-050.99-0.91
2000-060.38-0.74
2000-071.19-0.46
2000-080.85-0.25
2000-090.92-0.05
2000-101.680.25
2000-112.600.65
2000-122.801.04
2001-011.891.27
2001-021.301.38
2001-031.611.52
2001-040.831.53
2001-050.741.51
2001-061.021.53
2001-070.351.44
2001-080.281.34
2001-090.231.24
2001-10-0.591.02
2001-11-1.110.74
2001-12-1.430.43
2002-01-1.360.16
2002-02-1.58-0.13
2002-03-2.04-0.46
2002-04-1.54-0.68
2002-05-1.81-0.92
2002-06-1.15-1.04
2002-07-1.07-1.13
2002-08-0.92-1.19
2002-09-1.11-1.26
2002-10-0.80-1.27
2002-11-0.88-1.29
2002-12-0.30-1.22
2003-010.41-1.04
2003-020.48-0.86
2003-030.83-0.64
2003-040.41-0.50
2003-050.47-0.36
2003-06-0.36-0.35
2003-07-0.45-0.36
2003-08-0.77-0.41
2003-09-0.64-0.44
2003-10-0.77-0.49
2003-11-0.25-0.46
2003-12-0.25-0.43
2004-01-0.60-0.45
2004-02-0.52-0.46
2004-03-0.58-0.48
2004-04-0.51-0.48
2004-05-0.42-0.48
2004-06-0.55-0.49
2004-07-0.05-0.43
2004-08-0.06-0.37
2004-09-0.02-0.31
2004-100.06-0.25
2004-11-0.08-0.21
2004-12-0.57-0.25
2005-01-0.71-0.31
2005-02-0.68-0.35
2005-03-0.87-0.43
2005-04-0.68-0.47
2005-05-0.93-0.54
2005-06-0.55-0.55
2005-07-1.08-0.64
2005-08-0.59-0.65
2005-09-0.90-0.70
2005-10-0.95-0.75
2005-11-1.14-0.83
2005-12-0.86-0.85
2006-01-0.54-0.83
2006-02-0.40-0.79
2006-03-0.18-0.71
2006-040.02-0.61
2006-050.78-0.41
2006-060.83-0.22
2006-070.97-0.02
2006-080.750.13
2006-091.090.31
2006-101.420.53
2006-111.930.79
2006-122.521.12
2007-012.581.43
2007-022.261.65
2007-032.451.88
2007-042.402.08
2007-052.122.21
2007-061.872.28
2007-071.872.33
2007-081.992.40
2007-092.012.45
2007-102.012.48
2007-112.252.55
2007-121.862.54
2008-011.282.44
2008-021.282.34
2008-030.272.10
2008-04-0.151.81
2008-05-0.521.48
2008-06-0.861.13
2008-07-1.040.78
2008-08-1.740.36
2008-09-1.82-0.03
2008-10-0.92-0.26
2008-11-1.05-0.48
2008-12-1.29-0.71
2009-01-1.47-0.94
2009-02-0.96-1.06
2009-03-0.36-1.08
2009-04-0.50-1.11
2009-050.18-1.03
2009-060.89-0.84
2009-070.96-0.65
2009-080.49-0.54
2009-090.72-0.40
2009-101.09-0.21
2009-111.14-0.03
2009-121.180.15
2010-010.660.24
2010-020.360.27
2010-030.220.28
2010-04-0.070.24
2010-05-0.390.16
2010-06-0.710.04
2010-07-0.77-0.08
2010-080.11-0.06
2010-09-0.23-0.10
2010-10-0.19-0.12
2010-11-0.84-0.24
2010-12-0.84-0.34
2011-01-0.75-0.42
2011-02-0.61-0.48
2011-03-0.53-0.52
2011-04-0.28-0.51
2011-05-0.40-0.52
2011-06-0.23-0.50
2011-07-0.54-0.53
2011-08-0.68-0.57
2011-09-0.52-0.59
2011-10-0.86-0.65
2011-11-0.66-0.68
2011-12-0.67-0.70
2012-01-0.51-0.70
2012-02-0.66-0.71
2012-03-0.92-0.77
2012-04-0.55-0.76
2012-05-0.24-0.70
2012-06-0.51-0.69
2012-07-0.39-0.66
2012-08-0.56-0.66
2012-09-0.50-0.64
2012-10-0.31-0.60
2012-11-0.31-0.56
2012-120.12-0.46
2013-010.18-0.36
2013-020.02-0.30
2013-030.01-0.24
2013-04-0.31-0.23
2013-05-0.42-0.24
2013-06-0.57-0.27
2013-07-0.56-0.30
2013-08-0.28-0.29
2013-09-0.32-0.29
2013-10-0.42-0.30
2013-11-0.37-0.30
2013-12-0.76-0.36
2014-01-0.81-0.43
2014-02-0.61-0.46
2014-03-0.28-0.43
2014-04-0.08-0.39
2014-05-0.10-0.34
2014-060.15-0.27
2014-070.37-0.17
2014-080.21-0.10
2014-090.43-0.00
2014-100.450.09
2014-110.760.21
2014-121.430.43
2015-011.580.64
2015-021.540.83
2015-031.761.03
2015-041.921.23
2015-051.921.41
2015-061.761.55
2015-071.291.60
2015-080.961.59
2015-090.671.54
2015-100.731.49
2015-110.551.41
2015-120.181.28
2016-01-0.611.04
2016-02-0.700.80
2016-03-0.760.58
2016-04-1.040.32
2016-05-1.090.09
2016-06-0.78-0.08
2016-07-0.49-0.20
2016-08-0.13-0.24
2016-09-0.14-0.28
2016-10-0.18-0.32
2016-11-0.25-0.36
2016-12-0.54-0.44
2017-010.06-0.41
2017-020.22-0.37
2017-030.06-0.34
2017-04-0.06-0.34
2017-05-0.23-0.35
2017-06-0.37-0.39
2017-07-0.29-0.40
2017-08-0.25-0.41
2017-09-0.24-0.41
2017-10-0.42-0.43
2017-11-0.51-0.47
2017-12-0.35-0.48
2018-01-0.32-0.48
2018-02-0.46-0.50
2018-03-0.63-0.54
2018-04-0.55-0.56
2018-05-0.37-0.55
2018-06-0.44-0.56
2018-07-0.38-0.55
2018-08-0.75-0.60
2018-09-0.71-0.63
2018-10-0.44-0.62
2018-11-0.42-0.61
2018-12-0.24-0.57
2019-01-0.44-0.56
2019-02-0.03-0.49
2019-030.41-0.37
2019-040.33-0.26
2019-050.52-0.13
2019-060.57-0.01
2019-070.440.08
2019-080.800.21
2019-090.780.33
2019-100.540.41
2019-110.580.48
2019-120.360.50
2020-010.590.56
2020-020.320.57
2020-03-0.080.51
2020-04-0.110.45
2020-05-0.570.33
2020-06-0.350.25
2020-07-0.180.20
2020-08-0.380.12
2020-09-0.460.03
2020-10-0.36-0.03
2020-11-0.45-0.10
2020-12-0.62-0.19
2021-01-0.83-0.31
2021-02-0.90-0.42
2021-03-0.82-0.51
2021-04-0.74-0.57
2021-05-0.27-0.57
2021-06-0.47-0.58
2021-07-0.61-0.62
2021-08-0.32-0.61
2021-09-0.07-0.55
2021-10-0.10-0.51
2021-110.18-0.43
2021-120.37-0.32
2022-010.70-0.17
2022-020.73-0.03
2022-030.530.07
2022-040.690.18
2022-050.550.26
2022-061.070.41
2022-070.810.51
2022-080.620.57
2022-090.770.64
2022-100.480.66
2022-110.560.69
2022-120.830.75
2023-010.560.76
2023-020.590.78
2023-030.710.80
2023-040.710.83
2023-050.340.79
2023-06-0.210.67
2023-070.060.60
2023-080.010.53
2023-09-0.080.45
2023-100.280.42
2023-11-0.210.33
2023-12-0.580.19
2024-01-0.570.06
2024-02-0.66-0.07
2024-03-0.61-0.18
2024-04-0.45-0.25
2024-05-0.20-0.28
2024-06-0.34-0.33
2024-07-0.34-0.36
2024-08-0.24-0.38
2024-090.15-0.34
2024-10-0.08-0.33
2024-110.27-0.27
2024-120.45-0.18
2025-010.46-0.10
2025-020.640.00
2025-030.920.14
2025-040.650.22
2025-050.560.29
2025-060.470.33
2025-070.390.36
2025-080.500.40
2025-09-0.300.32
2025-10-0.650.19
2025-11-0.590.08
2025-12-0.71-0.03
2026-01-1.09-0.20
2026-02-1.60-0.43
2026-03-1.63-0.64
2026-04-2.24-0.92
2026-05-2.68-1.24
2026-06-2.53-1.50
2026-07-1.89-1.65
2026-08-2.07-1.80
2026-09-2.02-1.93
2026-10-1.17-1.92