週期數據 / 大宗商品

面向全球投資者的經濟週期研究

透過全球資產價格,讀懂經濟週期。

EN繁简

目前指標

倫鋁

倫鋁 · 月度 / 數據截至 2026年9月

最新觀測值21.29%對數按年變化

週期視角

3-4年基欽週期 (右軸)同比序列 (左軸)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在載入圖表…

2026年9月 同比序列: 21.29濾波值: -1.82

中長期週期

觀察約7-10年的朱格拉週期與15-25年的庫茲涅茨週期,比較不同時間尺度的起伏。

7-10年朱格拉週期15-25年庫茲涅茨週期

指標說明

鋁同時連繫交通、建築及製造需求,以及金屬生產所需的能源成本。 商品價格把實際供求與金融市場連在一起,倫鋁便是其中一個觀察窗口。產量、存貨、運輸及需求轉變,都會影響價格。週期視角讓我們把短期價格衝擊,與經濟擴張及放緩期間逐步形成的變化放在一起觀察。

圖表採用月度價格,與去年同月比較,再以兩者比值的對數計算年度變動。這樣可在不同價格水平下比較升跌,也較容易辨認過去一年價格表現由增強到轉弱的過程。它呈現所採用的商品報價,並非持續轉倉持有期貨合約的實際回報。

同比讀數在零線上方,表示價格高於去年同期;下方則代表較低。曲線回升,有時只是年度跌幅收窄,並不表示過去一年已錄得升幅;曲線下降,也可能只是年度升幅減少。把這些含義與最近一天的升跌分開,有助理解週期變化。

閱讀時,可與商品整體週期比較,再配合商品結構變化觀察。多種商品共同參與的行情,與某一產品單獨波動,帶出的訊息並不一樣。後者值得深入了解本身供求,前者則可結合製造業及生產者價格理解經濟背景,而不必假設所有商品都按同一時間表運行。

綠色週期線從歷史資料提取3-4年基欽週期的起伏,用於觀察週期節奏,並非預測下一次轉折。下圖呈現7-10年朱格拉週期與15-25年庫茲涅茨週期,有助理解短一些的回升為何可能處於更長的弱勢之中。主圖左右軸尺度不同,宜比較方向與時間,不宜直接比較兩條曲線的高度;歷史曲線亦可能隨資料更新而調整。

月度數值
月份同比序列濾波值
1997-01-0.877.60
1997-02-0.737.80
1997-031.187.88
1997-04-1.647.86
1997-052.247.72
1997-065.587.46
1997-078.747.10
1997-0815.616.65
1997-0913.496.10
1997-1018.505.48
1997-119.814.80
1997-121.994.08
1998-01-5.873.32
1998-02-7.522.55
1998-03-12.651.78
1998-04-9.621.04
1998-05-17.470.33
1998-06-18.16-0.32
1998-07-19.56-0.91
1998-08-26.61-1.41
1998-09-18.22-1.82
1998-10-20.94-2.13
1998-11-21.09-2.33
1998-12-20.32-2.42
1999-01-19.84-2.39
1999-02-21.09-2.25
1999-03-19.62-2.00
1999-04-10.39-1.64
1999-05-3.07-1.18
1999-060.62-0.64
1999-076.97-0.02
1999-088.790.66
1999-0910.611.39
1999-1012.282.15
1999-1112.872.92
1999-1221.873.68
2000-0132.144.43
2000-0234.175.13
2000-0328.875.79
2000-0413.106.37
2000-0510.286.88
2000-0613.567.29
2000-0710.787.60
2000-086.517.80
2000-097.037.88
2000-101.747.86
2000-110.077.72
2000-120.707.46
2001-01-3.927.10
2001-02-4.036.65
2001-03-4.406.10
2001-042.695.48
2001-054.794.80
2001-06-2.704.08
2001-07-9.883.32
2001-08-10.382.55
2001-09-17.471.78
2001-10-15.681.04
2001-11-10.460.33
2001-12-15.20-0.32
2002-01-16.60-0.91
2002-02-15.84-1.41
2002-03-7.15-1.82
2002-04-8.86-2.13
2002-05-13.59-2.33
2002-06-7.96-2.42
2002-07-5.69-2.39
2002-08-6.41-2.25
2002-09-3.27-2.00
2002-102.17-1.64
2002-113.31-1.18
2002-122.24-0.64
2003-010.71-0.02
2003-023.780.66
2003-03-1.131.39
2003-04-2.812.15
2003-054.032.92
2003-064.043.68
2003-077.074.43
2003-0812.005.13
2003-098.425.79
2003-1011.776.37
2003-119.466.88
2003-1212.297.29
2004-0115.327.60
2004-0217.007.80
2004-0317.567.88
2004-0426.137.86
2004-0514.907.72
2004-0617.407.46
2004-0717.417.10
2004-0815.016.65
2004-0919.696.10
2004-1021.055.48
2004-1118.454.80
2004-1217.334.08
2005-0113.273.32
2005-0211.072.55
2005-0317.861.78
2005-049.091.04
2005-057.160.33
2005-063.14-0.32
2005-073.99-0.91
2005-089.88-1.41
2005-096.53-1.82
2005-105.83-2.13
2005-1112.26-2.33
2005-1219.51-2.42
2006-0125.95-2.39
2006-0226.55-2.25
2006-0320.45-2.00
2006-0432.48-1.64
2006-0549.53-1.18
2006-0635.83-0.64
2006-0734.54-0.02
2006-0827.540.66
2006-0929.571.39
2006-1031.942.15
2006-1127.622.92
2006-1222.473.68
2007-0116.684.43
2007-0214.285.13
2007-0312.835.79
2007-047.136.37
2007-05-2.436.88
2007-067.757.29
2007-078.387.60
2007-082.247.80
2007-09-3.367.88
2007-10-8.337.86
2007-11-7.527.72
2007-12-16.677.46
2008-01-13.877.10
2008-02-1.976.65
2008-038.456.10
2008-045.015.48
2008-053.874.80
2008-069.984.08
2008-0711.693.32
2008-089.422.55
2008-095.471.78
2008-10-14.091.04
2008-11-30.250.33
2008-12-46.87-0.32
2009-01-54.85-0.91
2009-02-73.60-1.41
2009-03-81.08-1.82
2009-04-73.37-2.13
2009-05-68.70-2.33
2009-06-63.10-2.42
2009-07-61.05-2.39
2009-08-35.74-2.25
2009-09-32.00-2.00
2009-10-12.16-1.64
2009-115.10-1.18
2009-1238.03-0.64
2010-0145.85-0.02
2010-0243.200.66
2010-0350.151.39
2010-0448.892.15
2010-0533.452.92
2010-0620.483.68
2010-0717.574.43
2010-089.115.13
2010-0916.465.79
2010-1022.246.37
2010-1117.976.88
2010-127.537.29
2011-018.757.60
2011-0220.227.80
2011-0314.727.88
2011-0414.507.86
2011-0524.097.72
2011-0628.097.46
2011-0723.917.10
2011-0811.636.65
2011-095.896.10
2011-10-7.335.48
2011-11-11.484.80
2011-12-15.054.08
2012-01-12.903.32
2012-02-12.752.55
2012-03-15.701.78
2012-04-26.741.04
2012-05-25.720.33
2012-06-30.25-0.32
2012-07-29.71-0.91
2012-08-25.41-1.41
2012-09-10.54-1.82
2012-10-9.94-2.13
2012-11-6.51-2.33
2012-123.14-2.42
2013-01-5.09-2.39
2013-02-7.25-2.25
2013-03-13.44-2.00
2013-04-9.62-1.64
2013-05-9.15-1.18
2013-06-4.08-0.64
2013-07-5.85-0.02
2013-08-1.520.66
2013-09-15.861.39
2013-10-8.442.15
2013-11-10.882.92
2013-12-18.183.68
2014-01-16.524.43
2014-02-19.185.13
2014-03-11.315.79
2014-04-2.786.37
2014-05-4.526.88
2014-061.347.29
2014-079.627.60
2014-0811.087.80
2014-0912.237.88
2014-107.007.86
2014-1116.217.72
2014-129.307.46
2015-014.937.10
2015-026.996.65
2015-033.946.10
2015-040.475.48
2015-052.984.80
2015-06-8.584.08
2015-07-17.263.32
2015-08-27.122.55
2015-09-22.491.78
2015-10-24.951.04
2015-11-33.670.33
2015-12-24.32-0.32
2016-01-20.31-0.91
2016-02-17.15-1.41
2016-03-14.72-1.82
2016-04-14.65-2.13
2016-05-15.14-2.33
2016-06-5.74-2.42
2016-07-0.64-2.39
2016-085.72-2.25
2016-090.17-2.00
2016-109.40-1.64
2016-1116.84-1.18
2016-1214.32-0.64
2017-0119.01-0.02
2017-0219.490.66
2017-0321.671.39
2017-0420.112.15
2017-0521.002.92
2017-0616.813.68
2017-0715.544.43
2017-0821.385.13
2017-0927.505.79
2017-1024.656.37
2017-1118.856.88
2017-1218.587.29
2018-0121.007.60
2018-0215.927.80
2018-038.467.88
2018-0416.017.86
2018-0518.417.72
2018-0617.137.46
2018-079.007.10
2018-081.056.65
2018-09-3.406.10
2018-10-4.895.48
2018-11-7.884.80
2018-12-8.014.08
2019-01-17.573.32
2019-02-15.802.55
2019-03-10.061.78
2019-04-20.031.04
2019-05-25.540.33
2019-06-24.24-0.32
2019-07-14.73-0.91
2019-08-16.43-1.41
2019-09-14.47-1.82
2019-10-16.22-2.13
2019-11-8.82-2.33
2019-12-8.08-2.42
2020-01-4.45-2.39
2020-02-9.86-2.25
2020-03-14.98-2.00
2020-04-23.43-1.64
2020-05-19.45-1.18
2020-06-11.28-0.64
2020-07-8.91-0.02
2020-08-0.200.66
2020-09-0.561.39
2020-104.542.15
2020-118.662.92
2020-1212.873.68
2021-0112.244.43
2021-0220.815.13
2021-0330.735.79
2021-0446.296.37
2021-0550.666.88
2021-0644.467.29
2021-0741.837.60
2021-0840.447.80
2021-0948.587.88
2021-1048.537.86
2021-1130.927.72
2021-1229.117.46
2022-0140.557.10
2022-0244.576.65
2022-0346.826.10
2022-0433.565.48
2022-0515.104.80
2022-064.664.08
2022-07-3.643.32
2022-08-6.842.55
2022-09-24.221.78
2022-10-26.311.04
2022-11-11.470.33
2022-12-11.54-0.32
2023-01-18.36-0.91
2023-02-29.52-1.41
2023-03-42.09-1.82
2023-04-32.54-2.13
2023-05-22.12-2.33
2023-06-15.98-2.42
2023-07-10.90-2.39
2023-08-12.90-2.25
2023-09-1.82-2.00
2023-10-2.85-1.64
2023-11-6.52-1.18
2023-12-9.57-0.64
2024-01-13.18-0.02
2024-02-10.310.66
2024-03-3.111.39
2024-046.722.15
2024-0512.262.92
2024-0613.383.68
2024-078.414.43
2024-089.255.13
2024-0911.465.79
2024-1016.896.37
2024-1115.926.88
2024-1215.217.29
2025-0116.007.60
2025-0219.837.80
2025-0317.747.88
2025-04-5.527.86
2025-05-4.627.72
2025-061.137.46
2025-0710.397.10
2025-0810.286.65
2025-097.986.10
2025-107.335.48
2025-118.784.80
2025-1212.374.08
2026-0119.963.32
2026-0214.262.55
2026-0323.811.78
2026-0441.741.04
2026-0540.350.33
2026-0630.86-0.32
2026-0719.29-0.91
2026-0822.45-1.41
2026-0921.29-1.82