週期數據 / 價格

面向全球投資者的經濟週期研究

透過全球資產價格,讀懂經濟週期。

EN繁简

目前指標

生產者價格週期

生產者價格週期 · 月度 / 數據截至 2026年9月

最新觀測值1.86σ標準差

週期視角

3-4年基欽週期 (右軸)同比序列 (左軸)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在載入圖表…

2026年9月 同比序列: 1.86濾波值: -0.63

中長期週期

觀察約7-10年的朱格拉週期與15-25年的庫茲涅茨週期,比較不同時間尺度的起伏。

7-10年朱格拉週期15-25年庫茲涅茨週期

指標說明

商品價格改變,在消費者感受到之前,可能已在生產環節出現。能源、原材料與工業品沿產業鏈流動,同時把成本和需求的變化傳遞給其他企業。生產者價格提供較貼近生產端的視角,有助理解價格週期如何在經濟系統中展開。

本指標綜合樣本中的生產者價格資料:已有按年增幅的直接採用,原始資料為價格指數的則先計算按年變動。調整長期趨勢及波幅差異後,再以主成分分析找出最主要的共同變化。它呈現樣本價格的共同週期,並非某個經濟體的官方PPI增幅。

曲線上行,表示生產者價格升幅中共同增強的變化;下行則反映升幅放緩,或跌幅加深。升得較慢,價格仍可能繼續上升;按年變動為負,才代表低於一年前。綜合指標經過尺度調整,零線並不等於零通脹,閱讀時宜着重變化方向與相對階段。

可把它與商品、製造業景氣及消費者價格一同觀察。原材料價格轉變可能先在上游出現,再傳至製成品,但企業利潤及需求強弱會影響傳導。指標有助追蹤這些聯繫,並不表示每次成本上升都會轉嫁給消費者,也不表示各行業承受相同的價格壓力。

綠色週期線從歷史資料提取3-4年基欽週期的起伏,用於觀察週期節奏,並非預測下一次轉折。下圖呈現7-10年朱格拉週期與15-25年庫茲涅茨週期,有助理解短一些的回升為何可能處於更長的弱勢之中。主圖左右軸尺度不同,宜比較方向與時間,不宜直接比較兩條曲線的高度;歷史曲線亦可能隨資料更新而調整。

月度數值
月份同比序列濾波值
1997-010.200.66
1997-020.170.69
1997-030.040.71
1997-04-0.110.71
1997-05-0.070.70
1997-06-0.160.67
1997-07-0.180.62
1997-08-0.180.56
1997-09-0.160.49
1997-10-0.130.40
1997-11-0.110.31
1997-12-0.260.21
1998-01-0.420.11
1998-02-0.50-0.00
1998-03-0.49-0.11
1998-04-0.45-0.21
1998-05-0.56-0.32
1998-06-0.61-0.41
1998-07-0.56-0.50
1998-08-0.76-0.57
1998-09-0.65-0.63
1998-10-0.79-0.68
1998-11-0.94-0.71
1998-12-0.97-0.73
1999-01-1.01-0.73
1999-02-1.11-0.72
1999-03-0.95-0.69
1999-04-0.76-0.64
1999-05-0.60-0.58
1999-06-0.50-0.51
1999-07-0.32-0.43
1999-08-0.22-0.33
1999-090.02-0.23
1999-100.12-0.13
1999-110.17-0.02
1999-120.190.09
2000-010.380.19
2000-020.620.29
2000-030.710.39
2000-040.770.47
2000-050.600.55
2000-060.870.61
2000-070.900.66
2000-080.720.69
2000-090.690.71
2000-100.740.71
2000-110.600.70
2000-120.390.67
2001-010.210.62
2001-020.120.56
2001-03-0.020.49
2001-040.010.40
2001-05-0.090.31
2001-06-0.410.21
2001-07-0.590.11
2001-08-0.68-0.00
2001-09-0.91-0.11
2001-10-1.14-0.21
2001-11-1.24-0.32
2001-12-1.35-0.41
2002-01-1.37-0.50
2002-02-1.36-0.57
2002-03-1.19-0.63
2002-04-1.02-0.68
2002-05-0.99-0.71
2002-06-0.95-0.73
2002-07-0.76-0.73
2002-08-0.63-0.72
2002-09-0.49-0.69
2002-10-0.11-0.64
2002-11-0.12-0.58
2002-120.16-0.51
2003-010.33-0.43
2003-020.51-0.33
2003-030.50-0.23
2003-040.13-0.13
2003-05-0.08-0.02
2003-060.010.09
2003-07-0.050.19
2003-08-0.100.29
2003-09-0.170.39
2003-10-0.210.47
2003-11-0.150.55
2003-12-0.010.61
2004-010.020.66
2004-020.040.69
2004-030.090.71
2004-040.600.71
2004-050.840.70
2004-060.810.67
2004-070.840.62
2004-080.970.56
2004-091.050.49
2004-101.200.40
2004-111.220.31
2004-120.960.21
2005-010.760.11
2005-020.67-0.00
2005-030.68-0.11
2005-040.58-0.21
2005-050.34-0.32
2005-060.29-0.41
2005-070.26-0.50
2005-080.18-0.57
2005-090.35-0.63
2005-100.23-0.68
2005-110.10-0.71
2005-120.17-0.73
2006-010.21-0.73
2006-020.04-0.72
2006-03-0.11-0.69
2006-04-0.06-0.64
2006-050.19-0.58
2006-060.30-0.51
2006-070.37-0.43
2006-080.32-0.33
2006-090.02-0.23
2006-10-0.25-0.13
2006-11-0.24-0.02
2006-12-0.170.09
2007-01-0.320.19
2007-02-0.180.29
2007-03-0.080.39
2007-04-0.080.47
2007-05-0.160.55
2007-06-0.170.61
2007-07-0.280.66
2007-08-0.420.69
2007-09-0.270.71
2007-100.020.71
2007-110.230.70
2007-120.290.67
2008-010.640.62
2008-020.630.56
2008-030.860.49
2008-041.050.40
2008-051.280.31
2008-061.540.21
2008-071.900.11
2008-081.84-0.00
2008-091.59-0.11
2008-100.88-0.21
2008-11-0.25-0.32
2008-12-0.92-0.41
2009-01-1.43-0.50
2009-02-1.77-0.57
2009-03-2.17-0.63
2009-04-2.41-0.68
2009-05-2.64-0.71
2009-06-2.77-0.73
2009-07-2.97-0.73
2009-08-2.83-0.72
2009-09-2.70-0.69
2009-10-2.26-0.64
2009-11-1.29-0.58
2009-12-0.57-0.51
2010-010.03-0.43
2010-020.34-0.33
2010-030.60-0.23
2010-040.77-0.13
2010-050.88-0.02
2010-060.650.09
2010-070.640.19
2010-080.410.29
2010-090.430.39
2010-100.470.47
2010-110.560.55
2010-120.690.61
2011-010.710.66
2011-020.920.69
2011-030.970.71
2011-041.050.71
2011-051.070.70
2011-061.170.67
2011-071.280.62
2011-081.190.56
2011-091.130.49
2011-100.810.40
2011-110.540.31
2011-120.200.21
2012-010.020.11
2012-02-0.14-0.00
2012-03-0.24-0.11
2012-04-0.49-0.21
2012-05-0.64-0.32
2012-06-0.86-0.41
2012-07-0.98-0.50
2012-08-0.89-0.57
2012-09-0.85-0.63
2012-10-0.73-0.68
2012-11-0.67-0.71
2012-12-0.54-0.73
2013-01-0.51-0.73
2013-02-0.47-0.72
2013-03-0.54-0.69
2013-04-0.55-0.64
2013-05-0.50-0.58
2013-06-0.30-0.51
2013-07-0.24-0.43
2013-08-0.30-0.33
2013-09-0.31-0.23
2013-10-0.32-0.13
2013-11-0.31-0.02
2013-12-0.220.09
2014-01-0.200.19
2014-02-0.120.29
2014-03-0.190.39
2014-04-0.090.47
2014-05-0.040.55
2014-06-0.000.61
2014-07-0.020.66
2014-08-0.090.69
2014-09-0.150.71
2014-10-0.260.71
2014-11-0.380.70
2014-12-0.670.67
2015-01-1.110.62
2015-02-1.270.56
2015-03-1.260.49
2015-04-1.360.40
2015-05-1.310.31
2015-06-1.290.21
2015-07-1.370.11
2015-08-1.53-0.00
2015-09-1.62-0.11
2015-10-1.62-0.21
2015-11-1.67-0.32
2015-12-1.63-0.41
2016-01-1.45-0.50
2016-02-1.49-0.57
2016-03-1.39-0.63
2016-04-1.19-0.68
2016-05-1.03-0.71
2016-06-0.96-0.73
2016-07-0.75-0.73
2016-08-0.53-0.72
2016-09-0.34-0.69
2016-10-0.06-0.64
2016-110.34-0.58
2016-120.96-0.51
2017-011.30-0.43
2017-021.52-0.33
2017-031.56-0.23
2017-041.39-0.13
2017-051.09-0.02
2017-060.930.09
2017-070.810.19
2017-080.940.29
2017-091.010.39
2017-100.980.47
2017-110.940.55
2017-120.710.61
2018-010.610.66
2018-020.540.69
2018-030.520.71
2018-040.510.71
2018-050.780.70
2018-060.910.67
2018-070.990.62
2018-080.890.56
2018-090.830.49
2018-100.780.40
2018-110.500.31
2018-120.220.21
2019-01-0.090.11
2019-02-0.21-0.00
2019-03-0.15-0.11
2019-04-0.16-0.21
2019-05-0.39-0.32
2019-06-0.63-0.41
2019-07-0.73-0.50
2019-08-0.81-0.57
2019-09-0.92-0.63
2019-10-1.00-0.68
2019-11-0.87-0.71
2019-12-0.68-0.73
2020-01-0.54-0.73
2020-02-0.70-0.72
2020-03-1.06-0.69
2020-04-1.48-0.64
2020-05-1.44-0.58
2020-06-1.22-0.51
2020-07-1.06-0.43
2020-08-0.87-0.33
2020-09-0.72-0.23
2020-10-0.67-0.13
2020-11-0.51-0.02
2020-12-0.170.09
2021-010.240.19
2021-020.820.29
2021-031.390.39
2021-042.080.47
2021-052.460.55
2021-062.500.61
2021-072.590.66
2021-082.650.69
2021-092.760.71
2021-102.980.71
2021-113.030.70
2021-122.860.67
2022-012.740.62
2022-022.680.56
2022-032.720.49
2022-042.620.40
2022-052.370.31
2022-062.200.21
2022-071.740.11
2022-081.33-0.00
2022-090.98-0.11
2022-100.39-0.21
2022-110.24-0.32
2022-120.37-0.41
2023-010.15-0.50
2023-02-0.11-0.57
2023-03-0.46-0.63
2023-04-0.75-0.68
2023-05-1.11-0.71
2023-06-1.33-0.73
2023-07-1.20-0.73
2023-08-1.00-0.72
2023-09-0.86-0.69
2023-10-0.88-0.64
2023-11-0.86-0.58
2023-12-0.83-0.51
2024-01-0.76-0.43
2024-02-0.68-0.33
2024-03-0.75-0.23
2024-04-0.66-0.13
2024-05-0.42-0.02
2024-06-0.210.09
2024-07-0.160.19
2024-08-0.430.29
2024-09-0.630.39
2024-10-0.490.47
2024-11-0.330.55
2024-12-0.180.61
2025-01-0.090.66
2025-02-0.040.69
2025-030.030.71
2025-04-0.080.71
2025-05-0.150.70
2025-06-0.240.67
2025-07-0.240.62
2025-08-0.050.56
2025-090.070.49
2025-10-0.020.40
2025-11-0.020.31
2025-120.060.21
2026-010.090.11
2026-020.38-0.00
2026-030.63-0.11
2026-041.21-0.21
2026-051.43-0.32
2026-061.48-0.41
2026-071.44-0.50
2026-081.54-0.57
2026-091.86-0.63