週期數據 / 價格

面向全球投資者的經濟週期研究

透過全球資產價格,讀懂經濟週期。

EN繁简

目前指標

消費者價格週期

消費者價格週期 · 月度 / 數據截至 2026年9月

最新觀測值0.14σ標準差

週期視角

3-4年基欽週期 (右軸)同比序列 (左軸)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在載入圖表…

2026年9月 同比序列: 0.14濾波值: 0.36

中長期週期

觀察約7-10年的朱格拉週期與15-25年的庫茲涅茨週期,比較不同時間尺度的起伏。

7-10年朱格拉週期15-25年庫茲涅茨週期

指標說明

消費者價格是日常生活中最直接感受到的價格變化。食品、住屋、交通及服務未必同步升跌:有些很快受到商品價格影響,有些則透過工資、租金與當地需求逐步調整。將這些變化放在一起,有助看清個別項目以外,較廣泛的價格週期。

本指標綜合樣本中的消費者價格按年變動,包括整體及分類價格指標。先調整長期趨勢與波幅差異,再以主成分分析找出最主要的共同變化,既保留價格的共同起伏,也減少個別地區或商品短期衝擊的影響。

它反映消費者價格增速的週期,並非全球家庭生活成本的統一升幅。指標上行,代表通脹中的共同變化增強;下行則表示這種變化放緩。通脹回落時,價格仍可能高於去年同期。綜合曲線已調整尺度,負數讀數亦不能直接解讀為物價下跌。

閱讀時,可與生產者價格、商品及利率比較,觀察價格變化主要停留在上游,還是已逐步傳至日常消費。走勢有別同樣值得留意:原材料成本回落時,服務價格仍可能較為持續。指標協助掌握共同的價格背景,同時為不同經濟體及家庭的實際感受保留空間。

綠色週期線從歷史資料提取3-4年基欽週期的起伏,用於觀察週期節奏,並非預測下一次轉折。下圖呈現7-10年朱格拉週期與15-25年庫茲涅茨週期,有助理解短一些的回升為何可能處於更長的弱勢之中。主圖左右軸尺度不同,宜比較方向與時間,不宜直接比較兩條曲線的高度;歷史曲線亦可能隨資料更新而調整。

月度數值
月份同比序列濾波值
1997-010.080.05
1997-020.000.07
1997-03-0.180.09
1997-04-0.200.11
1997-05-0.310.14
1997-06-0.260.17
1997-07-0.260.19
1997-08-0.290.22
1997-09-0.340.25
1997-10-0.380.28
1997-11-0.450.30
1997-12-0.480.32
1998-01-0.560.34
1998-02-0.510.36
1998-03-0.500.37
1998-04-0.460.38
1998-05-0.450.38
1998-06-0.530.38
1998-07-0.620.38
1998-08-0.560.37
1998-09-0.660.36
1998-10-0.690.34
1998-11-0.670.32
1998-12-0.780.30
1999-01-0.960.28
1999-02-1.130.25
1999-03-1.060.23
1999-04-0.920.20
1999-05-1.000.17
1999-06-1.000.14
1999-07-0.990.12
1999-08-0.950.09
1999-09-0.810.07
1999-10-0.750.05
1999-11-0.740.03
1999-12-0.670.02
2000-01-0.580.01
2000-02-0.400.01
2000-03-0.220.01
2000-04-0.470.01
2000-05-0.380.02
2000-06-0.090.03
2000-070.050.05
2000-080.000.07
2000-090.210.09
2000-100.160.11
2000-110.180.14
2000-120.310.17
2001-010.530.19
2001-020.540.22
2001-030.430.25
2001-040.610.28
2001-050.730.30
2001-060.640.32
2001-070.400.34
2001-080.360.36
2001-090.030.37
2001-10-0.130.38
2001-11-0.240.38
2001-12-0.400.38
2002-01-0.580.38
2002-02-0.630.37
2002-03-0.610.36
2002-04-0.600.34
2002-05-0.730.32
2002-06-0.900.30
2002-07-0.820.28
2002-08-0.630.25
2002-09-0.600.23
2002-10-0.480.20
2002-11-0.410.17
2002-12-0.390.14
2003-01-0.360.12
2003-02-0.210.09
2003-03-0.090.07
2003-04-0.400.05
2003-05-0.480.03
2003-06-0.440.02
2003-07-0.430.01
2003-08-0.530.01
2003-09-0.510.01
2003-10-0.510.01
2003-11-0.600.02
2003-12-0.570.03
2004-01-0.590.05
2004-02-0.660.07
2004-03-0.640.09
2004-04-0.370.11
2004-05-0.130.14
2004-06-0.030.17
2004-07-0.070.19
2004-08-0.130.22
2004-09-0.130.25
2004-100.040.28
2004-110.230.30
2004-120.160.32
2005-010.100.34
2005-020.090.36
2005-030.150.37
2005-040.170.38
2005-050.050.38
2005-06-0.130.38
2005-070.030.38
2005-080.140.37
2005-090.450.36
2005-100.540.34
2005-110.390.32
2005-120.380.30
2006-010.610.28
2006-020.450.25
2006-030.330.23
2006-040.430.20
2006-050.550.17
2006-060.690.14
2006-070.660.12
2006-080.700.09
2006-090.320.07
2006-10-0.090.05
2006-11-0.050.03
2006-120.080.02
2007-01-0.090.01
2007-020.140.01
2007-030.200.01
2007-040.160.01
2007-050.110.02
2007-060.110.03
2007-070.030.05
2007-08-0.140.07
2007-090.040.09
2007-100.340.11
2007-110.600.14
2007-120.610.17
2008-010.670.19
2008-020.560.22
2008-030.670.25
2008-040.710.28
2008-050.990.30
2008-061.320.32
2008-071.700.34
2008-081.680.36
2008-091.480.37
2008-101.060.38
2008-110.450.38
2008-120.040.38
2009-01-0.160.38
2009-02-0.080.37
2009-03-0.410.36
2009-04-0.700.34
2009-05-1.100.32
2009-06-1.320.30
2009-07-1.800.28
2009-08-1.730.25
2009-09-1.680.23
2009-10-1.420.20
2009-11-1.040.17
2009-12-0.740.14
2010-01-0.650.12
2010-02-0.880.09
2010-03-0.790.07
2010-04-0.720.05
2010-05-0.710.03
2010-06-0.850.02
2010-07-0.760.01
2010-08-0.760.01
2010-09-0.750.01
2010-10-0.740.01
2010-11-0.750.02
2010-12-0.630.03
2011-01-0.470.05
2011-02-0.240.07
2011-03-0.030.09
2011-040.120.11
2011-050.340.14
2011-060.420.17
2011-070.560.19
2011-080.760.22
2011-090.820.25
2011-100.810.28
2011-110.860.30
2011-120.760.32
2012-010.710.34
2012-020.610.36
2012-030.520.37
2012-040.420.38
2012-050.230.38
2012-060.140.38
2012-07-0.040.38
2012-08-0.120.37
2012-09-0.090.36
2012-10-0.020.34
2012-11-0.120.32
2012-12-0.160.30
2013-01-0.180.28
2013-02-0.110.25
2013-03-0.240.23
2013-04-0.400.20
2013-05-0.260.17
2013-06-0.190.14
2013-07-0.060.12
2013-08-0.150.09
2013-09-0.220.07
2013-10-0.350.05
2013-11-0.310.03
2013-12-0.260.02
2014-01-0.290.01
2014-02-0.310.01
2014-03-0.170.01
2014-04-0.020.01
2014-050.040.02
2014-060.040.03
2014-07-0.020.05
2014-08-0.140.07
2014-09-0.180.09
2014-10-0.150.11
2014-11-0.350.14
2014-12-0.550.17
2015-01-0.750.19
2015-02-0.730.22
2015-03-0.790.25
2015-04-0.780.28
2015-05-0.830.30
2015-06-0.810.32
2015-07-0.830.34
2015-08-0.810.36
2015-09-0.850.37
2015-10-0.800.38
2015-11-0.790.38
2015-12-0.720.38
2016-01-0.630.38
2016-02-0.670.37
2016-03-0.720.36
2016-04-0.750.34
2016-05-0.690.32
2016-06-0.710.30
2016-07-0.740.28
2016-08-0.710.25
2016-09-0.650.23
2016-10-0.590.20
2016-11-0.560.17
2016-12-0.410.14
2017-01-0.120.12
2017-02-0.080.09
2017-03-0.260.07
2017-04-0.260.05
2017-05-0.420.03
2017-06-0.490.02
2017-07-0.450.01
2017-08-0.360.01
2017-09-0.340.01
2017-10-0.400.01
2017-11-0.370.02
2017-12-0.320.03
2018-01-0.390.05
2018-02-0.380.07
2018-03-0.190.09
2018-04-0.240.11
2018-05-0.130.14
2018-06-0.120.17
2018-07-0.040.19
2018-08-0.100.22
2018-09-0.180.25
2018-10-0.100.28
2018-11-0.190.30
2018-12-0.250.32
2019-01-0.370.34
2019-02-0.450.36
2019-03-0.480.37
2019-04-0.380.38
2019-05-0.500.38
2019-06-0.420.38
2019-07-0.390.38
2019-08-0.430.37
2019-09-0.480.36
2019-10-0.550.34
2019-11-0.470.32
2019-12-0.470.30
2020-01-0.390.28
2020-02-0.410.25
2020-03-0.790.23
2020-04-1.370.20
2020-05-1.430.17
2020-06-1.380.14
2020-07-1.300.12
2020-08-1.210.09
2020-09-1.120.07
2020-10-1.150.05
2020-11-1.060.03
2020-12-1.060.02
2021-01-0.940.01
2021-02-0.930.01
2021-03-0.490.01
2021-040.340.01
2021-050.790.02
2021-061.000.03
2021-071.120.05
2021-081.230.07
2021-091.350.09
2021-101.840.11
2021-112.110.14
2021-122.340.17
2022-012.590.19
2022-022.900.22
2022-033.400.25
2022-043.640.28
2022-053.880.30
2022-064.130.32
2022-074.130.34
2022-084.110.36
2022-094.080.37
2022-104.030.38
2022-113.850.38
2022-123.590.38
2023-013.490.38
2023-023.350.37
2023-033.080.36
2023-042.850.34
2023-052.320.32
2023-061.800.30
2023-071.600.28
2023-081.500.25
2023-091.280.23
2023-100.870.20
2023-110.630.17
2023-120.640.14
2024-010.380.12
2024-020.290.09
2024-030.260.07
2024-040.080.05
2024-050.010.03
2024-06-0.120.02
2024-07-0.140.01
2024-08-0.310.01
2024-09-0.430.01
2024-10-0.340.01
2024-11-0.220.02
2024-12-0.150.03
2025-01-0.080.05
2025-02-0.200.07
2025-03-0.320.09
2025-04-0.290.11
2025-05-0.290.14
2025-06-0.120.17
2025-07-0.050.19
2025-080.010.22
2025-090.060.25
2025-10-0.090.28
2025-11-0.220.30
2025-12-0.240.32
2026-01-0.450.34
2026-02-0.460.36
2026-03-0.190.37
2026-040.020.38
2026-050.180.38
2026-06-0.140.38
2026-07-0.090.38
2026-08-0.050.37
2026-090.140.36