週期數據 / 大宗商品

面向全球投資者的經濟週期研究

透過全球資產價格,讀懂經濟週期。

EN繁简

目前指標

倫鋅

倫鋅 · 月度 / 數據截至 2026年9月

最新觀測值31.55%對數按年變化

週期視角

3-4年基欽週期 (右軸)同比序列 (左軸)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在載入圖表…

2026年9月 同比序列: 31.55濾波值: 1.21

中長期週期

觀察約7-10年的朱格拉週期與15-25年的庫茲涅茨週期,比較不同時間尺度的起伏。

7-10年朱格拉週期15-25年庫茲涅茨週期

指標說明

鋅的用途包括鋼材防鏽等,提供觀察相關工業需求的角度。 商品價格把實際供求與金融市場連在一起,倫鋅便是其中一個觀察窗口。產量、存貨、運輸及需求轉變,都會影響價格。週期視角讓我們把短期價格衝擊,與經濟擴張及放緩期間逐步形成的變化放在一起觀察。

圖表採用月度價格,與去年同月比較,再以兩者比值的對數計算年度變動。這樣可在不同價格水平下比較升跌,也較容易辨認過去一年價格表現由增強到轉弱的過程。它呈現所採用的商品報價,並非持續轉倉持有期貨合約的實際回報。

同比讀數在零線上方,表示價格高於去年同期;下方則代表較低。曲線回升,有時只是年度跌幅收窄,並不表示過去一年已錄得升幅;曲線下降,也可能只是年度升幅減少。把這些含義與最近一天的升跌分開,有助理解週期變化。

閱讀時,可與商品整體週期比較,再配合商品結構變化觀察。多種商品共同參與的行情,與某一產品單獨波動,帶出的訊息並不一樣。後者值得深入了解本身供求,前者則可結合製造業及生產者價格理解經濟背景,而不必假設所有商品都按同一時間表運行。

綠色週期線從歷史資料提取3-4年基欽週期的起伏,用於觀察週期節奏,並非預測下一次轉折。下圖呈現7-10年朱格拉週期與15-25年庫茲涅茨週期,有助理解短一些的回升為何可能處於更長的弱勢之中。主圖左右軸尺度不同,宜比較方向與時間,不宜直接比較兩條曲線的高度;歷史曲線亦可能隨資料更新而調整。

月度數值
月份同比序列濾波值
1997-016.406.00
1997-0212.985.14
1997-0316.504.25
1997-0417.103.36
1997-0523.522.48
1997-0629.471.63
1997-0741.730.84
1997-0849.600.12
1997-0949.49-0.51
1997-1024.38-1.05
1997-1111.41-1.46
1997-126.17-1.76
1998-010.98-1.93
1998-02-12.19-1.97
1998-03-18.05-1.87
1998-04-12.29-1.64
1998-05-21.11-1.28
1998-06-29.35-0.81
1998-07-37.79-0.22
1998-08-47.350.45
1998-09-49.521.21
1998-10-30.832.03
1998-11-19.302.89
1998-12-13.903.78
1999-01-16.234.67
1999-02-2.595.55
1999-03-1.696.40
1999-04-7.387.19
1999-05-1.987.91
1999-06-0.938.55
1999-073.019.08
1999-089.349.50
1999-0917.719.79
1999-1020.009.96
1999-1117.0810.00
1999-1221.049.90
2000-0123.419.67
2000-027.359.31
2000-038.068.84
2000-0410.138.26
2000-0510.627.58
2000-0611.106.82
2000-075.816.00
2000-083.415.14
2000-092.534.25
2000-10-4.713.36
2000-11-8.002.48
2000-12-11.061.63
2001-01-13.190.84
2001-02-7.000.12
2001-03-10.54-0.51
2001-04-15.12-1.05
2001-05-20.97-1.46
2001-06-22.25-1.76
2001-07-28.74-1.93
2001-08-34.55-1.97
2001-09-42.73-1.87
2001-10-36.40-1.64
2001-11-31.49-1.28
2001-12-33.95-0.81
2002-01-26.42-0.22
2002-02-28.040.45
2002-03-20.401.21
2002-04-18.192.03
2002-05-19.802.89
2002-06-15.413.78
2002-07-6.984.67
2002-08-10.235.55
2002-09-5.466.40
2002-10-0.907.19
2002-11-0.997.91
2002-125.548.55
2003-01-1.509.08
2003-021.789.50
2003-03-3.529.79
2003-04-6.869.96
2003-050.8010.00
2003-063.039.90
2003-074.029.67
2003-088.989.31
2003-097.888.84
2003-1017.388.26
2003-1117.817.58
2003-1220.356.82
2004-0126.356.00
2004-0232.595.14
2004-0333.514.25
2004-0431.373.36
2004-0528.202.48
2004-0625.611.63
2004-0717.750.84
2004-0817.660.12
2004-0917.55-0.51
2004-1017.06-1.05
2004-1118.07-1.46
2004-1218.82-1.76
2005-0120.34-1.93
2005-0219.83-1.97
2005-0321.58-1.87
2005-0423.03-1.64
2005-0519.01-1.28
2005-0622.23-0.81
2005-0718.94-0.22
2005-0828.560.45
2005-0935.981.21
2005-1033.482.03
2005-1138.552.89
2005-1243.413.78
2006-0151.714.67
2006-0251.495.55
2006-0356.616.40
2006-0486.407.19
2006-05105.337.91
2006-0692.768.55
2006-07102.839.08
2006-0894.709.50
2006-0989.009.79
2006-1094.339.96
2006-11100.0710.00
2006-1288.309.90
2007-0159.429.67
2007-0239.969.31
2007-0330.278.84
2007-0414.268.26
2007-057.187.58
2007-0611.066.82
2007-075.986.00
2007-08-2.875.14
2007-09-16.644.25
2007-10-25.073.36
2007-11-54.492.48
2007-12-62.711.63
2008-01-48.130.84
2008-02-30.560.12
2008-03-26.43-0.51
2008-04-45.20-1.05
2008-05-56.29-1.46
2008-06-64.28-1.76
2008-07-64.92-1.93
2008-08-63.52-1.97
2008-09-50.70-1.87
2008-10-82.64-1.64
2008-11-79.07-1.28
2008-12-75.99-0.81
2009-01-67.84-0.22
2009-02-78.500.45
2009-03-72.471.21
2009-04-49.582.03
2009-05-38.572.89
2009-06-19.603.78
2009-07-15.994.67
2009-085.555.55
2009-098.216.40
2009-1046.437.19
2009-1164.347.91
2009-1276.968.55
2010-0171.809.08
2010-0266.249.50
2010-0362.589.79
2010-0454.029.96
2010-0528.2610.00
2010-0611.269.90
2010-0715.539.67
2010-0811.549.31
2010-0913.278.84
2010-1013.558.26
2010-114.387.58
2010-12-4.086.82
2011-01-2.626.00
2011-0213.365.14
2011-032.884.25
2011-04-0.193.36
2011-059.632.48
2011-0624.851.63
2011-0726.270.84
2011-087.330.12
2011-09-3.61-0.51
2011-10-23.71-1.05
2011-11-16.90-1.46
2011-12-18.02-1.76
2012-01-17.95-1.93
2012-02-18.06-1.97
2012-03-13.98-1.87
2012-04-16.54-1.64
2012-05-11.29-1.28
2012-06-18.41-0.81
2012-07-26.06-0.22
2012-08-19.070.45
2012-09-3.201.21
2012-101.722.03
2012-11-1.192.89
2012-126.883.78
2013-012.514.67
2013-023.395.55
2013-03-5.556.40
2013-04-7.587.19
2013-05-5.557.91
2013-06-1.068.55
2013-07-0.559.08
2013-084.349.50
2013-09-8.469.79
2013-10-1.019.96
2013-11-2.4310.00
2013-12-3.269.90
2014-010.239.67
2014-02-4.529.31
2014-034.168.84
2014-048.828.26
2014-0511.707.58
2014-0614.606.82
2014-0722.906.00
2014-0820.335.14
2014-0921.714.25
2014-1018.893.36
2014-1118.832.48
2014-129.681.63
2015-013.670.84
2015-023.060.12
2015-031.03-0.51
2015-048.76-1.05
2015-0510.28-1.46
2015-06-2.19-1.76
2015-07-14.40-1.93
2015-08-25.26-1.97
2015-09-28.81-1.87
2015-10-27.79-1.64
2015-11-35.28-1.28
2015-12-35.36-0.81
2016-01-32.92-0.22
2016-02-20.450.45
2016-03-11.871.21
2016-04-17.612.03
2016-05-19.952.89
2016-06-2.723.78
2016-078.734.67
2016-0823.185.55
2016-0928.716.40
2016-1029.317.19
2016-1148.297.91
2016-1255.638.55
2017-0157.989.08
2017-0250.949.50
2017-0343.269.79
2017-0434.319.96
2017-0532.6310.00
2017-0623.919.90
2017-0724.429.67
2017-0826.849.31
2017-0930.738.84
2017-1034.528.26
2017-1122.987.58
2017-1218.186.82
2018-0123.726.00
2018-0221.645.14
2018-0316.324.25
2018-0419.823.36
2018-0516.662.48
2018-0618.251.63
2018-07-4.820.84
2018-08-17.110.12
2018-09-24.70-0.51
2018-10-19.97-1.05
2018-11-21.84-1.46
2018-12-20.01-1.76
2019-01-29.21-1.93
2019-02-26.62-1.97
2019-03-13.70-1.87
2019-04-8.35-1.64
2019-05-10.94-1.28
2019-06-17.17-0.81
2019-07-8.22-0.22
2019-08-10.000.45
2019-09-4.331.21
2019-10-8.672.03
2019-11-6.782.89
2019-12-14.093.78
2020-01-8.754.67
2020-02-24.775.55
2020-03-40.386.40
2020-04-43.237.19
2020-05-32.837.91
2020-06-25.018.55
2020-07-11.669.08
2020-085.859.50
2020-094.659.79
2020-10-0.459.96
2020-119.6610.00
2020-1220.159.90
2021-0113.909.67
2021-0226.149.31
2021-0338.308.84
2021-0439.638.26
2021-0540.647.58
2021-0637.656.82
2021-0730.296.00
2021-0821.495.14
2021-0921.754.25
2021-1031.963.36
2021-1121.472.48
2021-1220.111.63
2022-0128.550.84
2022-0227.690.12
2022-0335.01-0.51
2022-0443.26-1.05
2022-0523.50-1.46
2022-0620.67-1.76
2022-075.22-1.93
2022-0818.29-1.97
2022-092.89-1.87
2022-10-12.43-1.64
2022-11-11.93-1.28
2022-12-8.27-0.81
2023-01-8.38-0.22
2023-02-14.420.45
2023-03-28.911.21
2023-04-45.462.03
2023-05-41.562.89
2023-06-42.403.78
2023-07-25.574.67
2023-08-39.925.55
2023-09-22.496.40
2023-10-19.217.19
2023-11-14.457.91
2023-12-22.368.55
2024-01-27.459.08
2024-02-28.369.50
2024-03-18.719.79
2024-04-1.279.96
2024-0517.8410.00
2024-0616.779.90
2024-0714.419.67
2024-0812.029.31
2024-0912.838.84
2024-1023.788.26
2024-1116.647.58
2024-1219.276.82
2025-0111.396.00
2025-0217.105.14
2025-0316.044.25
2025-04-4.153.36
2025-05-11.252.48
2025-06-5.661.63
2025-07-0.530.84
2025-082.730.12
2025-093.33-0.51
2025-101.48-1.05
2025-115.59-1.46
2025-124.31-1.76
2026-0113.07-1.93
2026-0217.15-1.97
2026-039.65-1.87
2026-0424.94-1.64
2026-0527.52-1.28
2026-0628.75-0.81
2026-0726.45-0.22
2026-0832.880.45
2026-0931.551.21