週期數據 / 大宗商品

面向全球投資者的經濟週期研究

透過全球資產價格,讀懂經濟週期。

EN繁简

目前指標

布蘭特原油

布蘭特原油 · 月度 / 數據截至 2026年9月

最新觀測值54.17%對數按年變化

週期視角

3-4年基欽週期 (右軸)同比序列 (左軸)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在載入圖表…

2026年9月 同比序列: 54.17濾波值: -0.24

中長期週期

觀察約7-10年的朱格拉週期與15-25年的庫茲涅茨週期,比較不同時間尺度的起伏。

7-10年朱格拉週期15-25年庫茲涅茨週期

指標說明

布蘭特原油提供能源市場的觀察視角,運輸需求、產量決策及供應變化都會影響其表現。 商品價格把實際供求與金融市場連在一起,布蘭特原油便是其中一個觀察窗口。產量、存貨、運輸及需求轉變,都會影響價格。週期視角讓我們把短期價格衝擊,與經濟擴張及放緩期間逐步形成的變化放在一起觀察。

圖表採用月度價格,與去年同月比較,再以兩者比值的對數計算年度變動。這樣可在不同價格水平下比較升跌,也較容易辨認過去一年價格表現由增強到轉弱的過程。它呈現所採用的商品報價,並非持續轉倉持有期貨合約的實際回報。

同比讀數在零線上方,表示價格高於去年同期;下方則代表較低。曲線回升,有時只是年度跌幅收窄,並不表示過去一年已錄得升幅;曲線下降,也可能只是年度升幅減少。把這些含義與最近一天的升跌分開,有助理解週期變化。

閱讀時,可與商品整體週期比較,再配合商品結構變化觀察。多種商品共同參與的行情,與某一產品單獨波動,帶出的訊息並不一樣。後者值得深入了解本身供求,前者則可結合製造業及生產者價格理解經濟背景,而不必假設所有商品都按同一時間表運行。

綠色週期線從歷史資料提取3-4年基欽週期的起伏,用於觀察週期節奏,並非預測下一次轉折。下圖呈現7-10年朱格拉週期與15-25年庫茲涅茨週期,有助理解短一些的回升為何可能處於更長的弱勢之中。主圖左右軸尺度不同,宜比較方向與時間,不宜直接比較兩條曲線的高度;歷史曲線亦可能隨資料更新而調整。

月度數值
月份同比序列濾波值
1997-0126.8712.15
1997-0214.7712.03
1997-03-3.9811.77
1997-04-18.4511.39
1997-050.1210.88
1997-06-4.0210.26
1997-07-6.379.55
1997-08-9.538.75
1997-09-20.247.89
1997-10-19.736.99
1997-11-17.536.07
1997-12-34.075.14
1998-01-44.174.23
1998-02-39.313.36
1998-03-38.432.55
1998-04-26.601.81
1998-05-28.541.16
1998-06-37.530.63
1998-07-42.660.21
1998-08-45.42-0.09
1998-09-32.28-0.24
1998-10-45.77-0.26
1998-11-55.38-0.14
1998-12-55.080.12
1999-01-31.070.50
1999-02-32.091.01
1999-03-4.781.63
1999-0413.332.34
1999-055.083.14
1999-0626.843.99
1999-0745.924.90
1999-0853.185.82
1999-0951.686.75
1999-1055.827.66
1999-1181.178.53
1999-1295.989.34
2000-0183.0610.08
2000-0299.9210.73
2000-0378.9811.26
2000-0438.7411.68
2000-0559.1011.97
2000-0663.2312.13
2000-0740.6012.15
2000-0837.5312.03
2000-0937.5911.77
2000-1034.3011.39
2000-1127.9610.88
2000-12-1.8310.26
2001-011.019.55
2001-02-1.088.75
2001-03-11.877.89
2001-0412.896.99
2001-053.986.07
2001-06-6.815.14
2001-07-15.074.23
2001-08-13.563.36
2001-09-24.462.55
2001-10-41.241.81
2001-11-54.061.16
2001-12-30.050.63
2002-01-27.440.21
2002-02-30.06-0.09
2002-03-2.93-0.24
2002-040.05-0.26
2002-05-11.39-0.14
2002-06-13.890.12
2002-074.890.50
2002-083.571.01
2002-0910.401.63
2002-1029.662.34
2002-1124.433.14
2002-1242.723.99
2003-0147.234.90
2003-0247.565.82
2003-0324.746.75
2003-04-2.527.66
2003-051.658.53
2003-0613.259.34
2003-079.7210.08
2003-0811.3210.73
2003-09-4.4911.26
2003-107.1511.68
2003-1117.3711.97
2003-124.8112.13
2004-01-0.2312.15
2004-02-5.6112.03
2004-0310.8011.77
2004-0428.7911.39
2004-0538.4610.88
2004-0624.5010.26
2004-0730.109.55
2004-0836.658.75
2004-0947.067.89
2004-1052.096.99
2004-1140.306.07
2004-1228.125.14
2005-0135.104.23
2005-0238.933.36
2005-0345.142.55
2005-0444.111.81
2005-0524.961.16
2005-0643.380.63
2005-0740.590.21
2005-0839.84-0.09
2005-0937.28-0.24
2005-1016.10-0.26
2005-1125.46-0.14
2005-1235.870.12
2006-0136.160.50
2006-0227.411.01
2006-0315.931.63
2006-0430.632.34
2006-0536.623.14
2006-0623.743.99
2006-0724.954.90
2006-0813.855.82
2006-09-0.336.75
2006-10-0.247.66
2006-115.178.53
2006-129.369.34
2007-01-15.7710.08
2007-02-3.6810.73
2007-03-0.1811.26
2007-04-4.4211.68
2007-05-3.9411.97
2007-063.5112.13
2007-074.3812.15
2007-08-3.9012.03
2007-0920.5911.77
2007-1035.0211.39
2007-1145.8810.88
2007-1238.3610.26
2008-0152.649.55
2008-0249.578.75
2008-0350.807.89
2008-0449.166.99
2008-0560.806.07
2008-0662.365.14
2008-0755.044.23
2008-0847.513.36
2008-0925.032.55
2008-10-12.881.81
2008-11-55.271.16
2008-12-78.820.63
2009-01-71.740.21
2009-02-78.51-0.09
2009-03-79.07-0.24
2009-04-77.34-0.26
2009-05-76.03-0.14
2009-06-66.220.12
2009-07-72.390.50
2009-08-45.121.01
2009-09-38.091.63
2009-100.482.34
2009-1136.953.14
2009-1258.543.99
2010-0153.214.90
2010-0254.145.82
2010-0352.626.75
2010-0451.367.66
2010-0527.468.53
2010-068.689.34
2010-0714.1010.08
2010-085.6210.73
2010-0913.9111.26
2010-1012.4711.68
2010-1110.6211.97
2010-1220.6512.13
2011-0123.1812.15
2011-0233.5712.03
2011-0336.7111.77
2011-0437.0411.39
2011-0540.6210.88
2011-0641.8710.26
2011-0744.369.55
2011-0836.148.75
2011-0935.457.89
2011-1027.786.99
2011-1125.456.07
2011-1216.175.14
2012-0114.354.23
2012-0214.103.36
2012-038.772.55
2012-04-2.141.81
2012-05-3.501.16
2012-06-17.400.63
2012-07-12.150.21
2012-082.92-0.09
2012-092.23-0.24
2012-102.26-0.26
2012-11-0.72-0.14
2012-121.620.12
2013-011.620.50
2013-02-2.691.01
2013-03-13.421.63
2013-04-15.782.34
2013-05-7.023.14
2013-067.573.99
2013-074.344.90
2013-08-2.125.82
2013-09-1.576.75
2013-10-2.257.66
2013-11-1.508.53
2013-120.919.34
2014-01-5.0410.08
2014-02-6.8510.73
2014-03-1.7011.26
2014-044.6711.68
2014-056.2611.97
2014-068.1512.13
2014-07-0.6912.15
2014-08-8.5012.03
2014-09-13.6911.77
2014-10-22.6711.39
2014-11-32.0510.88
2014-12-57.4110.26
2015-01-80.419.55
2015-02-63.048.75
2015-03-65.507.89
2015-04-59.616.99
2015-05-53.006.07
2015-06-58.475.14
2015-07-64.964.23
2015-08-77.433.36
2015-09-72.302.55
2015-10-59.531.81
2015-11-56.861.16
2015-12-50.230.63
2016-01-44.510.21
2016-02-55.67-0.09
2016-03-35.62-0.24
2016-04-34.05-0.26
2016-05-31.47-0.14
2016-06-25.150.12
2016-07-21.480.50
2016-08-1.831.01
2016-09-2.251.63
2016-103.292.34
2016-114.453.14
2016-1236.013.99
2017-0157.784.90
2017-0251.375.82
2017-0328.536.75
2017-0422.637.66
2017-057.648.53
2017-06-3.339.34
2017-077.7310.08
2017-0810.7410.73
2017-0917.7511.26
2017-1014.7311.68
2017-1129.8111.97
2017-1217.1912.13
2018-0122.8612.15
2018-0216.4612.03
2018-0324.5811.77
2018-0430.1611.39
2018-0541.0010.88
2018-0647.2210.26
2018-0742.459.55
2018-0835.328.75
2018-0935.747.89
2018-1033.406.99
2018-114.076.07
2018-12-12.865.14
2019-01-15.194.23
2019-02-1.993.36
2019-03-0.062.55
2019-04-0.601.81
2019-05-8.321.16
2019-06-17.210.63
2019-07-15.110.21
2019-08-21.05-0.09
2019-09-23.52-0.24
2019-10-30.41-0.26
2019-11-3.80-0.14
2019-1215.380.12
2020-017.050.50
2020-02-15.361.01
2020-03-69.991.63
2020-04-111.532.34
2020-05-82.143.14
2020-06-46.083.99
2020-07-40.214.90
2020-08-29.175.82
2020-09-41.676.75
2020-10-38.327.66
2020-11-37.258.53
2020-12-27.809.34
2021-01-15.3510.08
2021-0211.9210.73
2021-0368.1411.26
2021-04102.0711.68
2021-0578.5511.97
2021-0660.4312.13
2021-0755.2512.15
2021-0845.8712.03
2021-0959.6411.77
2021-1072.6111.39
2021-1162.5110.88
2021-1239.8810.26
2022-0144.979.55
2022-0243.548.75
2022-0357.277.89
2022-0449.056.99
2022-0550.176.07
2022-0649.675.14
2022-0738.134.23
2022-0834.233.36
2022-0918.942.55
2022-1010.741.81
2022-1112.001.16
2022-128.500.63
2023-01-2.890.21
2023-02-14.65-0.09
2023-03-38.66-0.24
2023-04-22.92-0.26
2023-05-39.50-0.14
2023-06-47.210.12
2023-07-30.730.50
2023-08-13.481.01
2023-094.171.63
2023-10-2.252.34
2023-11-9.063.14
2023-12-3.833.99
2024-01-3.514.90
2024-021.275.82
2024-038.446.75
2024-046.837.66
2024-057.998.53
2024-069.749.34
2024-076.2910.08
2024-08-6.3510.73
2024-09-23.5311.26
2024-10-18.5311.68
2024-11-11.1711.97
2024-12-5.3112.13
2025-01-1.2812.15
2025-02-10.8412.03
2025-03-16.3311.77
2025-04-28.4711.39
2025-05-24.4610.88
2025-06-14.4510.26
2025-07-18.419.55
2025-08-17.038.75
2025-09-8.927.89
2025-10-15.736.99
2025-11-15.666.07
2025-12-16.315.14
2026-01-17.094.23
2026-02-5.553.36
2026-0335.692.55
2026-0457.511.81
2026-0551.541.16
2026-0617.830.63
2026-0716.170.21
2026-0828.73-0.09
2026-0954.17-0.24