週期數據 / 外匯

面向全球投資者的經濟週期研究

透過全球資產價格,讀懂經濟週期。

EN繁简

目前指標

匯率結構變化

匯率結構變化 · 月度 / 數據截至 2026年9月

最新觀測值-2.38σ標準差

結構變化

結構趨勢 (右軸)同比序列 (左軸)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在載入圖表…

2026年9月 同比序列: -2.38濾波值: -1.01

指標說明

不同貨幣可以面對同一輪美元週期,卻未必同步變動。利率路徑、貿易結構及匯率安排,都令各種貨幣具有不同特性。匯率結構變化指標從整體外匯走勢中,再提取樣本內另一組重要變化,協助觀察貨幣間的相對關係。

計算時,先將匯率與一年前比較,統一外幣相對美元強弱的方向,再調整各貨幣的長期趨勢與波幅。主成分分析先找出最主要的共同變化,再提取另一組重要變化。因此,結構曲線反映一種具體的相對關係,並非所有貨幣分歧程度的總和。

目前結構中,港元的貢獻最突出,瑞士法郎與日圓亦位於同一側;人民幣及部分其他貨幣則位於另一側。這與目前樣本及調整後的波動特徵有關,也包含較穩定匯率與浮動幅度較大貨幣的差異。因此,不宜直接把整條曲線當作全球風險取向的高低。

閱讀時,可配合匯率整體週期,再回到相關貨幣查看變化。標準化讀數較高,不表示港元實際升值幅度很大,也不能據此推算真實資金流入。較有價值的問題是:樣本內貨幣的相對表現正如何轉變,這些轉變與當地環境及整體美元走勢有甚麼聯繫?

綠色線將結構指標平滑處理,讓持續變化與轉折更容易辨認,並不套用整體週期圖的固定週期長度。閱讀時宜結合相關市場,觀察相對變化是否持續、方向有否轉變。曲線高低是調整尺度後的指標讀數,並非回報率;模型加入新資料後,歷史讀數亦可能調整。

月度數值
月份同比序列濾波值
1997-01-0.64-0.37
1997-02-1.12-0.50
1997-03-1.09-0.61
1997-04-1.05-0.71
1997-05-0.69-0.74
1997-06-0.48-0.74
1997-07-0.64-0.76
1997-08-0.80-0.79
1997-09-0.68-0.81
1997-10-0.35-0.77
1997-11-0.06-0.69
1997-12-0.31-0.65
1998-01-0.04-0.58
1998-020.44-0.43
1998-030.21-0.34
1998-040.19-0.25
1998-050.01-0.20
1998-060.05-0.14
1998-070.24-0.07
1998-080.280.00
1998-090.420.09
1998-100.330.16
1998-110.480.23
1998-120.770.35
1999-010.660.43
1999-020.420.47
1999-030.610.53
1999-040.630.59
1999-050.410.61
1999-060.170.58
1999-07-0.020.53
1999-08-0.040.48
1999-09-0.440.37
1999-10-0.860.20
1999-11-1.140.01
1999-12-1.16-0.18
2000-01-1.23-0.35
2000-02-1.22-0.51
2000-03-1.21-0.66
2000-04-1.19-0.78
2000-05-1.32-0.91
2000-06-1.17-1.01
2000-07-1.29-1.11
2000-08-1.45-1.22
2000-09-1.25-1.29
2000-10-1.26-1.35
2000-11-1.13-1.38
2000-12-1.02-1.38
2001-01-0.77-1.35
2001-02-0.62-1.29
2001-03-0.56-1.22
2001-04-0.49-1.15
2001-05-0.42-1.07
2001-06-0.48-1.00
2001-07-0.32-0.91
2001-08-0.04-0.79
2001-090.01-0.67
2001-100.07-0.55
2001-110.17-0.43
2001-120.24-0.30
2002-010.21-0.20
2002-020.08-0.12
2002-030.33-0.02
2002-040.470.10
2002-050.640.22
2002-060.800.36
2002-070.920.50
2002-080.790.60
2002-090.590.66
2002-100.460.70
2002-110.470.73
2002-120.320.72
2003-010.480.74
2003-020.520.76
2003-030.420.75
2003-040.300.73
2003-050.300.71
2003-060.150.66
2003-07-0.200.56
2003-08-0.090.48
2003-090.530.50
2003-102.070.74
2003-111.380.86
2003-121.410.98
2004-011.321.07
2004-021.061.11
2004-030.431.05
2004-040.390.99
2004-050.230.90
2004-060.250.83
2004-070.150.74
2004-080.150.66
2004-09-0.410.50
2004-10-1.550.19
2004-11-0.280.09
2004-12-0.280.00
2005-01-0.91-0.17
2005-02-0.74-0.30
2005-03-0.07-0.32
2005-04-0.01-0.32
2005-050.25-0.28
2005-060.50-0.21
2005-070.53-0.13
2005-080.71-0.03
2005-090.980.10
2005-100.800.20
2005-110.230.21
2005-120.110.19
2006-010.860.29
2006-020.740.37
2006-030.830.45
2006-041.130.56
2006-051.090.66
2006-060.550.68
2006-070.360.66
2006-080.170.61
2006-09-0.300.49
2006-10-0.660.33
2006-11-0.560.20
2006-12-0.260.12
2007-01-1.23-0.09
2007-02-1.28-0.29
2007-03-1.35-0.49
2007-04-1.61-0.70
2007-05-1.87-0.93
2007-06-1.74-1.12
2007-07-1.62-1.27
2007-08-1.28-1.36
2007-09-0.10-1.26
2007-100.91-1.01
2007-110.11-0.89
2007-12-0.92-0.93
2008-01-0.04-0.83
2008-020.55-0.66
2008-031.28-0.38
2008-041.09-0.16
2008-051.030.04
2008-060.530.14
2008-070.770.27
2008-080.220.31
2008-09-0.010.31
2008-100.440.36
2008-111.230.53
2008-122.050.80
2009-012.031.04
2009-021.641.21
2009-030.951.25
2009-041.341.34
2009-051.641.46
2009-061.981.61
2009-071.921.74
2009-082.231.89
2009-091.561.93
2009-100.221.77
2009-110.031.58
2009-12-0.201.37
2010-01-0.421.13
2010-02-0.590.89
2010-03-0.440.69
2010-04-0.500.50
2010-05-1.230.22
2010-06-1.26-0.05
2010-07-0.84-0.22
2010-08-0.51-0.33
2010-09-0.34-0.40
2010-10-0.10-0.43
2010-11-0.03-0.43
2010-12-0.52-0.51
2011-01-0.39-0.55
2011-02-0.47-0.60
2011-03-0.65-0.66
2011-040.04-0.62
2011-050.83-0.46
2011-060.53-0.35
2011-07-0.05-0.33
2011-08-0.37-0.35
2011-09-0.65-0.42
2011-10-0.49-0.45
2011-11-0.72-0.52
2011-120.00-0.47
2012-010.61-0.33
2012-021.18-0.12
2012-030.920.04
2012-040.410.11
2012-050.350.16
2012-060.840.28
2012-070.940.40
2012-080.990.52
2012-091.140.65
2012-100.770.71
2012-110.930.79
2012-120.860.85
2013-010.440.83
2013-020.120.77
2013-030.320.74
2013-040.090.67
2013-050.030.60
2013-060.020.53
2013-070.050.47
2013-080.170.43
2013-09-0.020.37
2013-10-0.070.30
2013-11-0.110.24
2013-12-0.190.16
2014-01-0.140.11
2014-02-0.030.07
2014-03-0.020.04
2014-040.370.07
2014-050.390.10
2014-060.150.09
2014-070.130.09
2014-080.050.07
2014-09-0.060.04
2014-10-0.32-0.03
2014-11-0.32-0.08
2014-12-0.20-0.12
2015-010.13-0.10
2015-020.08-0.09
2015-030.04-0.09
2015-040.10-0.08
2015-05-0.07-0.09
2015-06-0.09-0.10
2015-07-0.16-0.12
2015-08-0.08-0.12
2015-090.25-0.08
2015-100.36-0.02
2015-110.310.02
2015-120.450.09
2016-01-0.390.02
2016-02-0.51-0.06
2016-030.20-0.02
2016-040.09-0.01
2016-050.07-0.00
2016-060.170.02
2016-070.340.07
2016-080.360.12
2016-090.210.14
2016-100.170.15
2016-110.240.17
2016-12-0.080.14
2017-010.770.24
2017-020.760.33
2017-03-0.040.29
2017-04-0.330.21
2017-05-0.600.10
2017-06-1.06-0.07
2017-07-1.57-0.30
2017-08-1.85-0.56
2017-09-1.88-0.79
2017-10-1.52-0.95
2017-11-1.51-1.10
2017-12-1.68-1.25
2018-01-1.95-1.42
2018-02-1.88-1.57
2018-03-1.83-1.69
2018-04-1.94-1.81
2018-05-1.96-1.91
2018-06-1.55-1.94
2018-07-1.22-1.92
2018-08-0.74-1.82
2018-09-0.40-1.67
2018-10-0.70-1.57
2018-11-0.56-1.46
2018-120.14-1.25
2019-01-0.27-1.12
2019-02-0.50-1.02
2019-03-0.08-0.88
2019-040.38-0.68
2019-050.47-0.48
2019-061.24-0.19
2019-071.720.15
2019-080.880.33
2019-090.510.44
2019-100.300.50
2019-110.490.58
2019-120.890.70
2020-012.080.98
2020-022.041.23
2020-032.251.48
2020-042.291.71
2020-052.241.91
2020-062.142.06
2020-072.102.19
2020-081.902.27
2020-091.792.32
2020-101.762.35
2020-111.822.37
2020-121.752.38
2021-010.702.23
2021-020.752.08
2021-03-0.321.79
2021-04-0.941.42
2021-05-0.911.09
2021-06-0.900.78
2021-07-1.180.46
2021-08-1.720.09
2021-09-1.52-0.23
2021-10-1.52-0.51
2021-11-1.72-0.79
2021-12-1.91-1.06
2022-01-1.71-1.28
2022-02-1.92-1.50
2022-03-2.27-1.75
2022-04-2.40-1.98
2022-05-2.21-2.16
2022-06-2.24-2.32
2022-07-2.26-2.45
2022-08-2.23-2.56
2022-09-2.10-2.63
2022-10-1.91-2.66
2022-11-1.21-2.57
2022-120.43-2.24
2023-01-0.66-2.08
2023-02-1.42-2.04
2023-03-0.60-1.89
2023-040.16-1.62
2023-050.83-1.28
2023-060.96-0.95
2023-071.65-0.54
2023-081.17-0.23
2023-091.110.03
2023-101.140.28
2023-111.020.48
2023-12-0.560.43
2024-010.090.47
2024-020.790.60
2024-030.770.71
2024-040.380.75
2024-050.470.79
2024-060.470.82
2024-07-0.030.77
2024-080.890.85
2024-091.391.00
2024-101.961.21
2024-110.871.24
2024-121.171.30
2025-011.111.35
2025-021.481.44
2025-031.921.58
2025-042.441.78
2025-050.721.71
2025-06-0.741.42
2025-07-0.811.14
2025-08-0.540.92
2025-090.550.87
2025-100.150.77
2025-110.480.72
2025-120.110.63
2026-01-0.130.50
2026-02-0.870.28
2026-03-1.70-0.04
2026-04-2.10-0.40
2026-05-1.08-0.57
2026-060.03-0.56
2026-07-0.16-0.57
2026-08-0.95-0.69
2026-09-2.38-1.01