周期数据 / 行业指数

面向全球投资者的经济周期研究

透过全球资产价格,读懂经济周期。

EN繁简

当前指标

行业结构变化

行业结构变化 · 月度 / 数据截至 2026年9月

最新观测值0.85σ标准差

结构变化

结构趋势 (右轴)同比序列 (左轴)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在加载图表…

2026年9月 同比序列: 0.85滤波值: 0.19

指标说明

股市上涨,并不意味着每个行业都同样受益。需求、原材料成本和融资环境的变化,会让不同企业面对不同处境。行业结构变化指标从整体行情中进一步分离出行业之间的主要差异,帮助你观察一轮行情中,哪些类型的企业相对占优,市场的领跑力量如何变化。

计算采用美国行业组合指数的同比变化。先调整长期趋势和波动差异,再用主成分分析,将最主要的共同涨跌与另一组重要变化分开。后者更多反映行业相对表现。它按企业经营活动观察股票市场,反映的是上市公司股价,而不是各行业的实际产量。

当前样本中,石油、采矿和航运等行业在其中一侧的贡献较突出;电信、公用事业和商业服务等在另一侧较突出。指标上行,表示相对变化偏向前一侧;下行则偏向后一侧。这种差异来自多个行业的共同构成,不宜简单理解为两个行业的直接价差,也不能一概套用成长价值或大小盘的标签。

读图时,可以与行业整体周期对照:行业领跑者的变化,发生在普遍上涨阶段,还是整体走弱阶段?相对表现更好,既可能是上涨更多,也可能是下跌更少。两条曲线放在一起,能帮助你区分市场整体方向与行业组合的变化,更具体地理解一轮行情的内部特征。

绿色线对结构指标进行平滑,让持续变化和转折更容易辨认,不预先套用整体周期图中的固定周期长度。读图时应结合相关市场,看相对变化是否持续、方向是否转变。曲线高低是经过尺度调整的指标读数,不是收益率;模型随新数据更新时,历史读数也可能调整。

月度数值
月份同比序列滤波值
1997-011.120.60
1997-020.960.70
1997-030.850.78
1997-040.480.79
1997-050.410.78
1997-060.550.79
1997-070.400.78
1997-080.290.74
1997-090.230.70
1997-10-0.240.59
1997-11-0.690.42
1997-12-0.900.23
1998-01-1.37-0.01
1998-02-1.37-0.24
1998-03-1.73-0.49
1998-04-1.20-0.65
1998-05-1.16-0.78
1998-06-1.58-0.96
1998-07-1.73-1.14
1998-08-2.18-1.37
1998-09-2.34-1.60
1998-10-1.86-1.73
1998-11-1.58-1.81
1998-12-1.87-1.91
1999-01-2.06-2.02
1999-02-1.85-2.09
1999-03-1.71-2.13
1999-04-1.51-2.12
1999-05-1.70-2.14
1999-06-1.27-2.08
1999-07-1.49-2.06
1999-08-1.34-2.01
1999-09-1.47-1.98
1999-10-2.09-2.04
1999-11-2.07-2.09
1999-12-1.78-2.09
2000-01-1.17-2.00
2000-02-1.72-1.99
2000-03-1.58-1.95
2000-04-1.54-1.92
2000-05-0.69-1.76
2000-06-1.19-1.68
2000-07-0.47-1.50
2000-08-0.16-1.30
2000-090.46-1.02
2000-101.27-0.64
2000-112.38-0.14
2000-123.020.42
2001-012.490.84
2001-023.261.34
2001-032.851.72
2001-042.912.07
2001-052.402.31
2001-062.922.58
2001-072.692.79
2001-082.662.96
2001-092.353.06
2001-102.273.12
2001-111.183.01
2001-120.672.81
2002-011.662.77
2002-021.502.69
2002-031.202.57
2002-041.622.51
2002-051.542.44
2002-062.072.44
2002-071.892.42
2002-081.762.37
2002-091.772.32
2002-101.392.22
2002-111.282.11
2002-121.552.05
2003-011.181.93
2003-020.911.78
2003-031.011.66
2003-040.401.46
2003-050.141.24
2003-06-0.440.95
2003-07-0.500.69
2003-08-0.280.47
2003-09-0.560.24
2003-100.170.14
2003-110.580.12
2003-120.320.07
2004-010.300.02
2004-020.400.00
2004-030.39-0.01
2004-040.650.02
2004-050.880.08
2004-060.950.16
2004-070.860.22
2004-080.690.26
2004-090.760.30
2004-100.550.31
2004-110.510.32
2004-120.360.31
2005-010.610.33
2005-020.750.38
2005-030.680.41
2005-040.460.41
2005-050.370.40
2005-060.360.38
2005-070.210.35
2005-080.270.33
2005-090.300.32
2005-100.570.34
2005-110.550.37
2005-120.760.42
2006-010.680.46
2006-020.180.42
2006-030.490.42
2006-040.670.46
2006-050.540.47
2006-060.320.45
2006-070.300.43
2006-080.150.39
2006-09-0.030.32
2006-10-0.130.25
2006-110.040.21
2006-12-0.180.14
2007-01-0.300.06
2007-02-0.080.02
2007-03-0.32-0.06
2007-04-0.37-0.13
2007-05-0.26-0.18
2007-06-0.01-0.18
2007-070.16-0.16
2007-080.22-0.13
2007-090.37-0.08
2007-100.40-0.02
2007-110.11-0.01
2007-120.150.00
2008-010.470.06
2008-020.730.16
2008-030.670.24
2008-040.590.30
2008-050.430.33
2008-060.370.35
2008-070.210.34
2008-080.260.34
2008-090.380.36
2008-100.090.33
2008-11-0.170.27
2008-12-0.110.22
2009-01-0.480.11
2009-02-0.79-0.03
2009-03-0.90-0.17
2009-04-0.67-0.27
2009-05-0.21-0.29
2009-06-0.75-0.38
2009-07-0.52-0.44
2009-08-0.27-0.44
2009-09-0.39-0.47
2009-10-0.06-0.44
2009-110.22-0.37
2009-12-0.12-0.35
2010-010.23-0.28
2010-020.63-0.16
2010-030.75-0.03
2010-040.530.06
2010-050.210.10
2010-060.440.16
2010-070.130.17
2010-08-0.280.12
2010-09-0.230.08
2010-10-0.430.02
2010-11-0.110.00
2010-120.420.06
2011-010.210.09
2011-020.120.10
2011-030.050.10
2011-04-0.110.08
2011-05-0.240.04
2011-06-0.030.03
2011-070.130.04
2011-080.170.06
2011-09-0.47-0.01
2011-100.03-0.01
2011-11-0.20-0.04
2011-12-0.45-0.10
2012-01-0.24-0.13
2012-02-0.34-0.17
2012-03-0.54-0.23
2012-04-0.55-0.29
2012-05-0.67-0.37
2012-06-0.73-0.44
2012-07-0.86-0.53
2012-08-0.63-0.57
2012-09-0.12-0.53
2012-10-0.39-0.54
2012-11-0.30-0.52
2012-12-0.24-0.50
2013-01-0.46-0.51
2013-02-0.43-0.52
2013-03-0.42-0.52
2013-04-0.58-0.54
2013-05-0.00-0.48
2013-06-0.06-0.43
2013-07-0.06-0.38
2013-08-0.05-0.33
2013-09-0.07-0.29
2013-10-0.17-0.27
2013-11-0.16-0.25
2013-12-0.16-0.23
2014-01-0.40-0.24
2014-02-0.27-0.24
2014-03-0.04-0.21
2014-040.27-0.13
2014-05-0.07-0.11
2014-06-0.03-0.08
2014-070.07-0.05
2014-080.07-0.02
2014-090.020.00
2014-10-0.29-0.02
2014-11-0.54-0.09
2014-12-0.57-0.15
2015-01-0.44-0.19
2015-02-0.34-0.21
2015-03-0.39-0.24
2015-04-0.49-0.28
2015-05-0.53-0.32
2015-06-0.44-0.35
2015-07-0.73-0.41
2015-08-0.61-0.45
2015-09-0.70-0.50
2015-10-0.46-0.52
2015-11-0.24-0.49
2015-12-0.37-0.49
2016-01-0.54-0.51
2016-02-0.72-0.55
2016-03-0.75-0.59
2016-04-0.37-0.58
2016-05-0.54-0.59
2016-06-0.59-0.60
2016-07-0.47-0.60
2016-08-0.52-0.60
2016-09-0.59-0.61
2016-10-0.57-0.61
2016-11-0.21-0.56
2016-12-0.15-0.51
2017-01-0.04-0.44
2017-02-0.21-0.41
2017-03-0.40-0.40
2017-04-0.88-0.46
2017-05-0.79-0.51
2017-06-0.44-0.50
2017-07-0.51-0.51
2017-08-0.84-0.56
2017-09-0.32-0.53
2017-10-0.29-0.50
2017-11-0.72-0.53
2017-12-0.37-0.51
2018-01-0.19-0.47
2018-02-0.03-0.40
2018-030.21-0.30
2018-040.51-0.17
2018-050.68-0.03
2018-060.200.03
2018-070.420.12
2018-080.360.19
2018-090.060.21
2018-10-0.340.16
2018-11-0.410.11
2018-12-0.86-0.01
2019-01-0.80-0.12
2019-02-0.86-0.22
2019-03-1.02-0.34
2019-04-1.27-0.49
2019-05-1.59-0.67
2019-06-1.22-0.78
2019-07-1.35-0.90
2019-08-1.53-1.03
2019-09-1.35-1.12
2019-10-1.04-1.16
2019-11-0.84-1.16
2019-12-0.54-1.11
2020-01-1.07-1.15
2020-02-1.27-1.20
2020-03-1.30-1.25
2020-04-1.57-1.34
2020-05-1.36-1.38
2020-06-1.45-1.43
2020-07-1.61-1.50
2020-08-1.22-1.50
2020-09-1.53-1.54
2020-10-1.40-1.56
2020-11-1.12-1.53
2020-12-1.16-1.51
2021-01-0.60-1.40
2021-020.21-1.19
2021-030.86-0.89
2021-040.68-0.64
2021-051.08-0.36
2021-060.86-0.13
2021-071.010.10
2021-080.840.28
2021-091.210.49
2021-101.470.72
2021-111.120.87
2021-121.101.01
2022-011.421.17
2022-021.191.27
2022-031.321.38
2022-041.731.53
2022-051.351.61
2022-061.141.64
2022-071.441.70
2022-081.721.80
2022-091.751.88
2022-101.921.97
2022-112.002.06
2022-122.142.16
2023-011.522.16
2023-021.262.10
2023-030.851.99
2023-040.501.83
2023-050.421.66
2023-060.991.59
2023-070.901.51
2023-080.861.43
2023-090.751.33
2023-100.201.17
2023-11-0.130.97
2023-12-0.220.77
2024-01-0.080.61
2024-020.060.48
2024-030.400.42
2024-040.560.39
2024-050.480.36
2024-06-0.070.25
2024-07-0.120.15
2024-08-0.250.04
2024-09-0.67-0.12
2024-10-0.79-0.28
2024-11-0.73-0.42
2024-12-0.84-0.55
2025-01-0.66-0.64
2025-02-1.07-0.78
2025-03-1.00-0.89
2025-04-1.35-1.04
2025-05-1.31-1.16
2025-06-1.09-1.24
2025-07-1.21-1.32
2025-08-0.96-1.35
2025-09-0.90-1.36
2025-10-0.71-1.34
2025-11-0.34-1.26
2025-12-0.22-1.16
2026-01-0.01-1.03
2026-020.45-0.85
2026-030.25-0.71
2026-040.04-0.60
2026-050.11-0.50
2026-060.58-0.33
2026-071.01-0.12
2026-080.690.03
2026-090.850.19