周期数据 / 大宗商品

面向全球投资者的经济周期研究

透过全球资产价格,读懂经济周期。

EN繁简

当前指标

伦铜

伦铜 · 月度 / 数据截至 2026年9月

最新观测值37.14%对数同比变化

周期视角

3-4年基钦周期 (右轴)同比序列 (左轴)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在加载图表…

2026年9月 同比序列: 37.14滤波值: -2.84

中长期周期

观察约7-10年的朱格拉周期与15-25年的库兹涅茨周期,对照不同时间尺度的起伏。

7-10年朱格拉周期15-25年库兹涅茨周期

指标说明

铜与制造、建筑和电气用途等工业原材料需求联系紧密。 商品价格把实际供需和金融市场连接起来,伦铜就是其中一个观察窗口。产量、库存、运输和需求变化,都会影响它的价格。周期视角帮助我们把短期价格冲击,与经济扩张、放缓过程中逐渐形成的变化放在一起看。

图表采用月度价格,与去年同月比较,并通过两者比值的对数计算年度变化。这样可以在不同价格水平下比较涨跌,也更容易辨认过去一年价格表现由增强到转弱的过程。它呈现所采用的商品报价,并不是不断换月持有期货合约的实际回报。

同比读数在零线上方,表示价格高于去年同期;下方则表示低于去年同期。曲线上升,有时只是年度跌幅收窄,并不意味着过去一年已经上涨;曲线下降,也可能只是年度涨幅减小。将这些含义与最近一天的涨跌分开,更容易理解周期变化。

读图时,可以把这一商品与商品整体周期对照,再结合商品结构变化观察。一轮由多种商品共同参与的行情,与某个品种独自波动,所传达的信息不同。后者值得进一步看自身供需,前者则可以结合制造业和生产者价格理解经济背景,而不必假设所有商品都按同一时间表运行。

绿色周期线从历史数据中提取3-4年基钦周期的起伏,用来观察周期节奏,并不是下一次转折的预测。下图呈现7-10年朱格拉周期与15-25年库兹涅茨周期,帮助理解一轮较短的回升为何可能发生在更长的弱势之中。主图左右轴尺度不同,应比较两条曲线的方向与时间,而不是直接比较高度;历史曲线也可能随数据更新调整。

月度数值
月份同比序列滤波值
1997-01-7.1911.77
1997-02-5.3411.73
1997-03-5.6111.52
1997-04-8.2111.16
1997-05-5.5710.64
1997-0618.419.99
1997-0721.049.21
1997-0811.408.32
1997-098.207.34
1997-104.546.30
1997-11-15.145.22
1997-12-25.234.12
1998-01-36.613.03
1998-02-36.821.96
1998-03-32.580.95
1998-04-28.350.02
1998-05-37.24-0.81
1998-06-45.32-1.53
1998-07-39.49-2.12
1998-08-32.85-2.56
1998-09-24.61-2.84
1998-10-25.75-2.96
1998-11-19.74-2.92
1998-12-17.89-2.71
1999-01-16.53-2.35
1999-02-16.56-1.83
1999-03-23.76-1.18
1999-04-20.57-0.40
1999-05-13.670.49
1999-06-15.471.46
1999-07-0.672.50
1999-081.633.58
1999-096.054.68
1999-108.335.78
1999-119.316.84
1999-1218.037.85
2000-0125.348.78
2000-0224.419.62
2000-0323.2610.34
2000-0413.5510.92
2000-0516.6911.36
2000-0620.9011.65
2000-079.2711.77
2000-0811.9011.73
2000-0911.3311.52
2000-109.6411.16
2000-113.8410.64
2000-124.759.99
2001-01-3.119.21
2001-02-1.978.32
2001-03-0.047.34
2001-04-0.876.30
2001-05-5.975.22
2001-06-8.624.12
2001-07-16.533.03
2001-08-23.691.96
2001-09-31.800.95
2001-10-32.100.02
2001-11-22.90-0.81
2001-12-22.90-1.53
2002-01-17.27-2.12
2002-02-12.26-2.56
2002-03-8.01-2.84
2002-04-4.54-2.96
2002-05-5.28-2.92
2002-062.40-2.71
2002-074.13-2.35
2002-081.03-1.83
2002-093.61-1.18
2002-107.45-0.40
2002-1110.280.49
2002-128.091.46
2003-019.132.50
2003-027.523.58
2003-033.324.68
2003-04-0.185.78
2003-053.246.84
2003-062.347.85
2003-077.318.78
2003-0817.379.62
2003-0919.0810.34
2003-1025.8010.92
2003-1126.1611.36
2003-1232.1711.65
2004-0138.5911.77
2004-0249.4011.73
2004-0359.5311.52
2004-0461.9211.16
2004-0550.5910.64
2004-0646.579.99
2004-0749.619.21
2004-0848.058.32
2004-0948.107.34
2004-1045.016.30
2004-1141.825.22
2004-1235.694.12
2005-0126.853.03
2005-0216.471.96
2005-0311.620.95
2005-0414.080.02
2005-0517.28-0.81
2005-0627.13-1.53
2005-0725.22-2.12
2005-0828.85-2.56
2005-0928.72-2.84
2005-1029.84-2.96
2005-1131.27-2.92
2005-1237.50-2.71
2006-0140.11-2.35
2006-0242.61-1.83
2006-0341.21-1.18
2006-0463.22-0.40
2006-0590.680.49
2006-0671.411.46
2006-0775.792.50
2006-0870.623.58
2006-0967.844.68
2006-1061.385.78
2006-1149.866.84
2006-1237.747.85
2007-0118.038.78
2007-0213.049.62
2007-0323.4710.34
2007-0419.5410.92
2007-05-4.6411.36
2007-063.7711.65
2007-073.3211.77
2007-08-2.4011.73
2007-090.6111.52
2007-106.5511.16
2007-11-0.8910.64
2007-12-1.329.99
2008-0121.959.21
2008-0232.908.32
2008-0326.847.34
2008-0411.186.30
2008-058.745.22
2008-0610.004.12
2008-075.393.03
2008-081.601.96
2008-09-9.000.95
2008-10-48.600.02
2008-11-62.82-0.81
2008-12-76.29-1.53
2009-01-78.50-2.12
2009-02-86.69-2.56
2009-03-81.12-2.84
2009-04-67.85-2.96
2009-05-60.70-2.92
2009-06-49.93-2.71
2009-07-47.83-2.35
2009-08-21.38-1.83
2009-09-12.06-1.18
2009-1024.42-0.40
2009-1158.550.49
2009-1282.101.46
2010-0183.002.50
2010-0272.563.58
2010-0368.824.68
2010-0456.405.78
2010-0540.326.84
2010-0625.957.85
2010-0725.578.78
2010-0816.679.62
2010-0921.8510.34
2010-1027.6710.92
2010-1123.8111.36
2010-1227.0211.65
2011-0125.7511.77
2011-0236.5311.73
2011-0324.1711.52
2011-0420.3511.16
2011-0527.0310.64
2011-0633.299.99
2011-0735.979.21
2011-0821.168.32
2011-097.387.34
2011-10-11.466.30
2011-11-11.095.22
2011-12-18.994.12
2012-01-17.273.03
2012-02-15.611.96
2012-03-11.500.95
2012-04-13.550.02
2012-05-11.89-0.81
2012-06-20.00-1.53
2012-07-24.09-2.12
2012-08-18.03-2.56
2012-09-2.59-2.84
2012-108.65-2.96
2012-111.70-2.92
2012-125.16-2.71
2013-010.09-2.35
2013-02-4.61-1.83
2013-03-10.25-1.18
2013-04-13.62-0.40
2013-05-9.300.49
2013-06-5.861.46
2013-07-9.362.50
2013-08-4.393.58
2013-09-12.194.68
2013-10-11.275.78
2013-11-8.676.84
2013-12-9.917.85
2014-01-9.868.78
2014-02-12.009.62
2014-03-13.9510.34
2014-04-8.0710.92
2014-05-5.0711.36
2014-06-2.5911.65
2014-072.9511.77
2014-08-2.6911.73
2014-09-4.0911.52
2014-10-6.6811.16
2014-11-5.1910.64
2014-12-11.269.99
2015-01-22.369.21
2015-02-22.148.32
2015-03-11.307.34
2015-04-9.946.30
2015-05-9.055.22
2015-06-15.654.12
2015-07-26.513.03
2015-08-31.161.96
2015-09-27.550.95
2015-10-25.590.02
2015-11-33.54-0.81
2015-12-32.91-1.53
2016-01-26.53-2.12
2016-02-21.98-2.56
2016-03-18.15-2.84
2016-04-21.51-2.96
2016-05-29.33-2.92
2016-06-22.84-2.71
2016-07-11.48-2.35
2016-08-7.61-1.83
2016-09-9.97-1.18
2016-10-9.76-0.40
2016-1112.720.49
2016-1219.901.46
2017-0125.222.50
2017-0225.613.58
2017-0316.194.68
2017-0415.405.78
2017-0517.636.84
2017-0620.887.85
2017-0720.728.78
2017-0831.119.62
2017-0933.1310.34
2017-1036.3810.92
2017-1122.5011.36
2017-1218.8411.65
2018-0120.5311.77
2018-0216.5011.73
2018-0315.4711.52
2018-0418.6811.16
2018-0519.7910.64
2018-0619.719.99
2018-074.349.21
2018-08-6.948.32
2018-09-8.347.34
2018-10-9.036.30
2018-11-9.695.22
2018-12-11.774.12
2019-01-17.373.03
2019-02-10.621.96
2019-03-5.440.95
2019-04-6.220.02
2019-05-12.59-0.81
2019-06-16.91-1.53
2019-07-5.08-2.12
2019-08-5.81-2.56
2019-09-4.94-2.84
2019-10-7.72-2.96
2019-11-5.57-2.92
2019-120.03-2.71
2020-011.54-2.35
2020-02-10.23-1.83
2020-03-21.71-1.18
2020-04-24.13-0.40
2020-05-13.840.49
2020-06-2.191.46
2020-077.012.50
2020-0812.953.58
2020-0915.204.68
2020-1015.375.78
2020-1118.766.84
2020-1224.607.85
2021-0127.908.78
2021-0239.839.62
2021-0355.0610.34
2021-0461.1710.92
2021-0566.2411.36
2021-0651.5011.65
2021-0739.4111.77
2021-0836.5911.73
2021-0932.9811.52
2021-1038.1211.16
2021-1131.9410.64
2021-1220.619.99
2022-0120.469.21
2022-0216.028.32
2022-0312.957.34
2022-048.596.30
2022-05-8.045.22
2022-06-6.514.12
2022-07-22.523.03
2022-08-16.041.96
2022-09-18.550.95
2022-10-25.050.02
2022-11-18.94-0.81
2022-12-13.14-1.53
2023-01-7.91-2.12
2023-02-10.67-2.56
2023-03-14.43-2.84
2023-04-14.28-2.96
2023-05-13.20-2.92
2023-06-7.21-2.71
2023-0711.65-2.35
2023-084.50-1.83
2023-096.63-1.18
2023-103.67-0.40
2023-111.720.49
2023-120.291.46
2024-01-8.052.50
2024-02-7.333.58
2024-03-1.914.68
2024-047.175.78
2024-0521.026.84
2024-0613.907.85
2024-0710.188.78
2024-087.199.62
2024-0910.9810.34
2024-1018.3310.92
2024-1110.2711.36
2024-125.9711.65
2025-017.5311.77
2025-0211.6411.73
2025-0311.4111.52
2025-04-3.0911.16
2025-05-6.1710.64
2025-061.929.99
2025-074.029.21
2025-087.498.32
2025-097.777.34
2025-1011.916.30
2025-1117.515.22
2025-1227.904.12
2026-0136.963.03
2026-0232.791.96
2026-0325.180.95
2026-0434.450.02
2026-0535.11-0.81
2026-0632.06-1.53
2026-0732.65-2.12
2026-0839.31-2.56
2026-0937.14-2.84