周期数据 / 大宗商品

面向全球投资者的经济周期研究

透过全球资产价格,读懂经济周期。

EN繁简

当前指标

布伦特原油

布伦特原油 · 月度 / 数据截至 2026年9月

最新观测值54.17%对数同比变化

周期视角

3-4年基钦周期 (右轴)同比序列 (左轴)
1997-01 — 2026-09

正在加载图表…

2026年9月 同比序列: 54.17滤波值: -0.24

中长期周期

观察约7-10年的朱格拉周期与15-25年的库兹涅茨周期,对照不同时间尺度的起伏。

7-10年朱格拉周期15-25年库兹涅茨周期

指标说明

布伦特原油提供能源市场的观察角度,运输需求、产量决策和供应变化都会影响其表现。 商品价格把实际供需和金融市场连接起来,布伦特原油就是其中一个观察窗口。产量、库存、运输和需求变化,都会影响它的价格。周期视角帮助我们把短期价格冲击,与经济扩张、放缓过程中逐渐形成的变化放在一起看。

图表采用月度价格,与去年同月比较,并通过两者比值的对数计算年度变化。这样可以在不同价格水平下比较涨跌,也更容易辨认过去一年价格表现由增强到转弱的过程。它呈现所采用的商品报价,并不是不断换月持有期货合约的实际回报。

同比读数在零线上方,表示价格高于去年同期;下方则表示低于去年同期。曲线上升,有时只是年度跌幅收窄,并不意味着过去一年已经上涨;曲线下降,也可能只是年度涨幅减小。将这些含义与最近一天的涨跌分开,更容易理解周期变化。

读图时,可以把这一商品与商品整体周期对照,再结合商品结构变化观察。一轮由多种商品共同参与的行情,与某个品种独自波动,所传达的信息不同。后者值得进一步看自身供需,前者则可以结合制造业和生产者价格理解经济背景,而不必假设所有商品都按同一时间表运行。

绿色周期线从历史数据中提取3-4年基钦周期的起伏,用来观察周期节奏,并不是下一次转折的预测。下图呈现7-10年朱格拉周期与15-25年库兹涅茨周期,帮助理解一轮较短的回升为何可能发生在更长的弱势之中。主图左右轴尺度不同,应比较两条曲线的方向与时间,而不是直接比较高度;历史曲线也可能随数据更新调整。

月度数值
月份同比序列滤波值
1997-0126.8712.15
1997-0214.7712.03
1997-03-3.9811.77
1997-04-18.4511.39
1997-050.1210.88
1997-06-4.0210.26
1997-07-6.379.55
1997-08-9.538.75
1997-09-20.247.89
1997-10-19.736.99
1997-11-17.536.07
1997-12-34.075.14
1998-01-44.174.23
1998-02-39.313.36
1998-03-38.432.55
1998-04-26.601.81
1998-05-28.541.16
1998-06-37.530.63
1998-07-42.660.21
1998-08-45.42-0.09
1998-09-32.28-0.24
1998-10-45.77-0.26
1998-11-55.38-0.14
1998-12-55.080.12
1999-01-31.070.50
1999-02-32.091.01
1999-03-4.781.63
1999-0413.332.34
1999-055.083.14
1999-0626.843.99
1999-0745.924.90
1999-0853.185.82
1999-0951.686.75
1999-1055.827.66
1999-1181.178.53
1999-1295.989.34
2000-0183.0610.08
2000-0299.9210.73
2000-0378.9811.26
2000-0438.7411.68
2000-0559.1011.97
2000-0663.2312.13
2000-0740.6012.15
2000-0837.5312.03
2000-0937.5911.77
2000-1034.3011.39
2000-1127.9610.88
2000-12-1.8310.26
2001-011.019.55
2001-02-1.088.75
2001-03-11.877.89
2001-0412.896.99
2001-053.986.07
2001-06-6.815.14
2001-07-15.074.23
2001-08-13.563.36
2001-09-24.462.55
2001-10-41.241.81
2001-11-54.061.16
2001-12-30.050.63
2002-01-27.440.21
2002-02-30.06-0.09
2002-03-2.93-0.24
2002-040.05-0.26
2002-05-11.39-0.14
2002-06-13.890.12
2002-074.890.50
2002-083.571.01
2002-0910.401.63
2002-1029.662.34
2002-1124.433.14
2002-1242.723.99
2003-0147.234.90
2003-0247.565.82
2003-0324.746.75
2003-04-2.527.66
2003-051.658.53
2003-0613.259.34
2003-079.7210.08
2003-0811.3210.73
2003-09-4.4911.26
2003-107.1511.68
2003-1117.3711.97
2003-124.8112.13
2004-01-0.2312.15
2004-02-5.6112.03
2004-0310.8011.77
2004-0428.7911.39
2004-0538.4610.88
2004-0624.5010.26
2004-0730.109.55
2004-0836.658.75
2004-0947.067.89
2004-1052.096.99
2004-1140.306.07
2004-1228.125.14
2005-0135.104.23
2005-0238.933.36
2005-0345.142.55
2005-0444.111.81
2005-0524.961.16
2005-0643.380.63
2005-0740.590.21
2005-0839.84-0.09
2005-0937.28-0.24
2005-1016.10-0.26
2005-1125.46-0.14
2005-1235.870.12
2006-0136.160.50
2006-0227.411.01
2006-0315.931.63
2006-0430.632.34
2006-0536.623.14
2006-0623.743.99
2006-0724.954.90
2006-0813.855.82
2006-09-0.336.75
2006-10-0.247.66
2006-115.178.53
2006-129.369.34
2007-01-15.7710.08
2007-02-3.6810.73
2007-03-0.1811.26
2007-04-4.4211.68
2007-05-3.9411.97
2007-063.5112.13
2007-074.3812.15
2007-08-3.9012.03
2007-0920.5911.77
2007-1035.0211.39
2007-1145.8810.88
2007-1238.3610.26
2008-0152.649.55
2008-0249.578.75
2008-0350.807.89
2008-0449.166.99
2008-0560.806.07
2008-0662.365.14
2008-0755.044.23
2008-0847.513.36
2008-0925.032.55
2008-10-12.881.81
2008-11-55.271.16
2008-12-78.820.63
2009-01-71.740.21
2009-02-78.51-0.09
2009-03-79.07-0.24
2009-04-77.34-0.26
2009-05-76.03-0.14
2009-06-66.220.12
2009-07-72.390.50
2009-08-45.121.01
2009-09-38.091.63
2009-100.482.34
2009-1136.953.14
2009-1258.543.99
2010-0153.214.90
2010-0254.145.82
2010-0352.626.75
2010-0451.367.66
2010-0527.468.53
2010-068.689.34
2010-0714.1010.08
2010-085.6210.73
2010-0913.9111.26
2010-1012.4711.68
2010-1110.6211.97
2010-1220.6512.13
2011-0123.1812.15
2011-0233.5712.03
2011-0336.7111.77
2011-0437.0411.39
2011-0540.6210.88
2011-0641.8710.26
2011-0744.369.55
2011-0836.148.75
2011-0935.457.89
2011-1027.786.99
2011-1125.456.07
2011-1216.175.14
2012-0114.354.23
2012-0214.103.36
2012-038.772.55
2012-04-2.141.81
2012-05-3.501.16
2012-06-17.400.63
2012-07-12.150.21
2012-082.92-0.09
2012-092.23-0.24
2012-102.26-0.26
2012-11-0.72-0.14
2012-121.620.12
2013-011.620.50
2013-02-2.691.01
2013-03-13.421.63
2013-04-15.782.34
2013-05-7.023.14
2013-067.573.99
2013-074.344.90
2013-08-2.125.82
2013-09-1.576.75
2013-10-2.257.66
2013-11-1.508.53
2013-120.919.34
2014-01-5.0410.08
2014-02-6.8510.73
2014-03-1.7011.26
2014-044.6711.68
2014-056.2611.97
2014-068.1512.13
2014-07-0.6912.15
2014-08-8.5012.03
2014-09-13.6911.77
2014-10-22.6711.39
2014-11-32.0510.88
2014-12-57.4110.26
2015-01-80.419.55
2015-02-63.048.75
2015-03-65.507.89
2015-04-59.616.99
2015-05-53.006.07
2015-06-58.475.14
2015-07-64.964.23
2015-08-77.433.36
2015-09-72.302.55
2015-10-59.531.81
2015-11-56.861.16
2015-12-50.230.63
2016-01-44.510.21
2016-02-55.67-0.09
2016-03-35.62-0.24
2016-04-34.05-0.26
2016-05-31.47-0.14
2016-06-25.150.12
2016-07-21.480.50
2016-08-1.831.01
2016-09-2.251.63
2016-103.292.34
2016-114.453.14
2016-1236.013.99
2017-0157.784.90
2017-0251.375.82
2017-0328.536.75
2017-0422.637.66
2017-057.648.53
2017-06-3.339.34
2017-077.7310.08
2017-0810.7410.73
2017-0917.7511.26
2017-1014.7311.68
2017-1129.8111.97
2017-1217.1912.13
2018-0122.8612.15
2018-0216.4612.03
2018-0324.5811.77
2018-0430.1611.39
2018-0541.0010.88
2018-0647.2210.26
2018-0742.459.55
2018-0835.328.75
2018-0935.747.89
2018-1033.406.99
2018-114.076.07
2018-12-12.865.14
2019-01-15.194.23
2019-02-1.993.36
2019-03-0.062.55
2019-04-0.601.81
2019-05-8.321.16
2019-06-17.210.63
2019-07-15.110.21
2019-08-21.05-0.09
2019-09-23.52-0.24
2019-10-30.41-0.26
2019-11-3.80-0.14
2019-1215.380.12
2020-017.050.50
2020-02-15.361.01
2020-03-69.991.63
2020-04-111.532.34
2020-05-82.143.14
2020-06-46.083.99
2020-07-40.214.90
2020-08-29.175.82
2020-09-41.676.75
2020-10-38.327.66
2020-11-37.258.53
2020-12-27.809.34
2021-01-15.3510.08
2021-0211.9210.73
2021-0368.1411.26
2021-04102.0711.68
2021-0578.5511.97
2021-0660.4312.13
2021-0755.2512.15
2021-0845.8712.03
2021-0959.6411.77
2021-1072.6111.39
2021-1162.5110.88
2021-1239.8810.26
2022-0144.979.55
2022-0243.548.75
2022-0357.277.89
2022-0449.056.99
2022-0550.176.07
2022-0649.675.14
2022-0738.134.23
2022-0834.233.36
2022-0918.942.55
2022-1010.741.81
2022-1112.001.16
2022-128.500.63
2023-01-2.890.21
2023-02-14.65-0.09
2023-03-38.66-0.24
2023-04-22.92-0.26
2023-05-39.50-0.14
2023-06-47.210.12
2023-07-30.730.50
2023-08-13.481.01
2023-094.171.63
2023-10-2.252.34
2023-11-9.063.14
2023-12-3.833.99
2024-01-3.514.90
2024-021.275.82
2024-038.446.75
2024-046.837.66
2024-057.998.53
2024-069.749.34
2024-076.2910.08
2024-08-6.3510.73
2024-09-23.5311.26
2024-10-18.5311.68
2024-11-11.1711.97
2024-12-5.3112.13
2025-01-1.2812.15
2025-02-10.8412.03
2025-03-16.3311.77
2025-04-28.4711.39
2025-05-24.4610.88
2025-06-14.4510.26
2025-07-18.419.55
2025-08-17.038.75
2025-09-8.927.89
2025-10-15.736.99
2025-11-15.666.07
2025-12-16.315.14
2026-01-17.094.23
2026-02-5.553.36
2026-0335.692.55
2026-0457.511.81
2026-0551.541.16
2026-0617.830.63
2026-0716.170.21
2026-0828.73-0.09
2026-0954.17-0.24