Understanding this indicator
The US ten-year Treasury yield is a useful reference for longer-term dollar financing conditions. Government bond yields are a useful meeting point between expectations for growth, inflation and monetary policy. US 10-year Treasury yield offers one view of that relationship. Its level matters, but the pace at which it changes can tell a different story. A cycle view focuses on that changing pace rather than on the latest daily movement.
This chart uses monthly yield observations and subtracts the yield in the same month a year earlier. The unit is percentage points: a move from 3% to 4% is an increase of one percentage point. The chart shows a change in yield, not a percentage return on a bond.
A year-on-year reading above zero means the yield is higher than a year earlier; below zero means lower. If the reading rises from a negative value toward zero, yields are still lower on that annual comparison, but the gap is narrowing. This distinction helps separate a high yield level from an accelerating rise, or a low yield level from a slowing decline.
Growth expectations, inflation pressure and central-bank policy can produce similar yield moves for different reasons. Comparing the curve with equities, commodities and the common interest-rate cycle helps give those moves context. A fixed-rate bond’s price generally moves in the opposite direction to its yield, so an upward cycle here should not be read as a rise in bond prices.
The green line isolates the 3–4-year Kitchin cycle from the historical data; it is a fitted cycle, not a forecast of the next turn. The lower chart shows the 7–10-year Juglar cycle and the 15–25-year Kuznets cycle. Comparing these time scales can reveal why a shorter upswing sometimes sits within a much longer period of weakness. The two main-chart axes use different scales, so compare their timing and direction rather than the height of one line against the other. Historical curves may change as the data are updated.